We’ve got a matchup between two Western Conference teams who are in the thick of the playoff picture. The Los Angeles Lakers are 37-29 (6th in the Western Conference) on the season and 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Portland Trail Blazers are also 37-29 (7th in the Western Conference) on the season and have won five of their last 10. The Lakers have the better conference record. Los Angeles is 19-14 on the road, while Portland is 16-16 at home. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Trail Blazers favored by 8.5 points with the O/U at 221.5. There are a ton of injuries in this one, especially for the Lakers. LeBron James, Dennis Schroder, and Talen Horton-Tucker are out, while Anthony Davis is a game-time decision. Norman Powell is the only player of significance on the injury report for Portland but he’s expected to play.
Let’s break down this Showdown contest on DraftKings.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Damian Lillard ($17,400 CP) - There was a five-game stretch a few weeks ago in which Lillard was a little off. He shot 36% from the field and produced fewer than 40 DKFP in four of those contests. All looks to be right in the world again, though, as he’s shot 53% from the field over the last four games and has gone over 50 DKFP in each. He’s playing 35 minutes per game, garnering a 30% usage rate, attempting 19 shots, and contributing in every statistical category except for blocks. This is a pivotal game and Lillard should shine once again.
Kyle Kuzma ($10,500 CP) - Kuzma averages 0.91 DKFP per minute. He can disappear from time to time, especially when the shot isn’t falling. He’s scored fewer than 20 DKFP 17 times this season. That said, he’s scored at least 30 DKFP 23 times with six of those above 40, so there’s access to ceiling. With all of the injuries, he’s one of the main guys on offense now, and if Anthony Davis ($17,700 CP) succumbs to injury again, then he becomes the de facto alpha. Side note: I really want to play Davis at captain since the matchup is one of the best for power forwards. There is just too much uncertainty pertaining to his health, though. The Trail Blazers are 29th in defensive efficiency and boost the FPPM to small forwards by 4.5% above league average.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (LAL vs POR)
UTIL Plays
Carmelo Anthony ($3,800) - Anthony averages 0.91 DKFP per minute. Unfortunately, he’s only averaging 22.7 minutes over the last five games. He’s still a professional getter of buckets, though, and he’s hoisting 10 shots per game, with 4.8 of those from beyond the arc. He’s put up 27.5, 24.5, 17.75, 15, and 31.25 DKFP over the last five contests. He shouldn’t have a problem paying off the salary expectation.
Ben McLemore ($4,000) - Since arriving in Los Angeles, McLemore is only averaging 0.77 DKFP per minute and 17.5 minutes per contest. With Horton-Tucker out, he should see a spike in playing time. Perhaps in the high-20s and approaching the 30-minute mark. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,200) - Caldwell-Pope has been averaging 32 minutes per game over the last six contests. He’s only been averaging 19.35 DKFP per game, though, but he has accessed ceiling games before. He’s put up at least 30 DKFP in six games with a high of 42.75. His offense is going to be needed if the Lakers have any chance of competing.
Fades
Andre Drummond ($8,400) - Since arriving in Los Angeles, Drummond has played 15 games and averaged 24.8 minutes, 12 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks. He’s gone for at least 30 DKFP in seven games with a high of 50.25. In the two most recent games, though, he’s played 22 and 23 minutes, producing 8 and 20 DKFP. There have been games when Marc Gasol ($3,000) has been a much better option for the Lakers, both offensively and defensively. His ability to pass and shoot opens up the offense and his defense in the post could be beneficial against Jusuf Nurkic ($8,600). As the fifth most expensive player on the slate, there are too many paths to failure for me to feel comfortable rostering him.
THE OUTCOME
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
I initially had the Lakers replicating their four-point win in Denver two games ago but then I smacked myself and returned to reality. If Davis was 100%, then I’d take the Lakers in a slobber knocker, but I just don’t see how that back is 100%.
Final Score: Portland 111, Los Angeles 98
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (LAL vs POR)
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