Happy Saturday! We made it to the weekend, and as a reward, we have a fully-loaded slate on the diamond. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
All Cristian Javier has done since entering the league in 2020 is dominate. His ERA sits at a minuscule 1.75 right now, and he’s struck out 30% of the hitters he’s faced. The best part? The whiff rate on his slider is now up almost 20%, and it’s been put in play just eight out of 102 times. That’s insane!
On the other side of the ball, we have some lefty-mashers on the Astros, who rank 11th in the game with a 111 wRC+ against southpaws. Steven Matz came crashing back to Earth last time out, and I think this Astros lineup, as hot as it is, should represent a challenge too great for him to conquer. Javier keeps the Jays at bay, and at the dish, the Astros have plenty to say.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
From one young pitcher that I love to another. Sure, Ian Anderson hasn’t been quite as dominant in 2021 as he was last season, but he’s still generating plenty of swings and misses on his fastball and changeup. He’s certainly being disrespected by this line considering the man who’s on the other end of the matchup.
Vince Velasquez has been a nightmare ever since he rose to the big-league level, with a 37% hard-hit rate for his career. That’s up to over 40% this season, and he’s allowed six barrels already in just 18 1⁄3 innings.
The Braves have great lifetime numbers off of Velasquez, and on the other hand, the Phillies have had a very difficult time trying to hit fastballs this year with only a few players having positive numbers off of the pitch. I think this is a nice discount.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
When you see a wave, you just have to ride it. That’s what we have here with the Angels against the Dodgers, who have lost 14 of 18 games and still come into this one a pretty steep favorite. Clayton Kershaw has been just about the only thing that’s worked about the Dodgers this year, but even in his starts, this team has gone 4-3.
Dylan Bundy’s analytics put his pitching right in line with Kershaw’s this season, and his swing-and-miss upside here against a Dodgers team that can get a little strikeout happy is definitely worth betting on. The Dodgers live on walks, and Bundy’s also one of the best in the league at limiting those at just a 6.1% clip. I understand why the DraftKings Sportsbook had to make Kershaw a steep favorite, but for my money, this is pretty close to a pick ‘em, especially in a game where the Angels get to play at home.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.