Happy Mother’s Day! The NBA is celebrating by offering up a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s NBA slate.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11):
The Cavaliers have nothing left to play for this season, and their results have been dismal recently. They’ve lost each of their past nine games, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 17.9 points per 100 possessions over that time frame. That’s an astronomical figure.
They’re also still without Darius Garland, who has been one of their most important players this season. Their Net Rating has decreased by -4.9 points per 100 possessions with Garland off the court this season, which is the second-highest mark among their regulars.
Still, this feels like too many points against the Mavericks. Dallas is dealing with some injury issues of their own, with Kristaps Porzingis already ruled out and Maxi Kleber listed as questionable. The Mavs should still be able to win this game without both players, but it might be a bit closer than expected.
Minnesota Timberwolves (-7.5) @ Orlando Magic:
The Magic are waiving the white flag for the rest of the season. They’ve already ruled out a host of players vs. the Timberwolves.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves are still playing with most of their key players. Karl-Anthony Towns is back to playing big minutes, and he has been by far their most important player this season. The team has increased its Net Rating by +8.5 points per 100 possessions with Towns on the floor this season, and most of that production has come on the offensive end of the court.
Ricky Rubio and D’Angelo Russell are also back for the Timberwolves, so they should have a significant advantage over the Magic.
Lonzo Ball Under 7.5 assists (-107)
Let’s finish things up with a player prop. Ball is in an interesting spot vs. the Hornets on Sunday. The Pelicans are playing shorthanded at the moment, with both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out indefinitely with long-term injuries.
That said, those injuries actually don’t bode well for Ball from an assist perspective. He’s decreased his assist rate by 1.8% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of just 5.2 assists per 36 minutes. Ball has seen a greater impact as a scorer, which makes the under on his assist prop an appealing target. Ball racked up just three assists with both players out of the lineup in their last game, so this line seems way too high.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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