It’s been an interesting series so far between the Trail Blazers and Nuggets as three of the games have been blowouts. Home court has not meant much as both teams have split on the others court. Now we get Game 5 in Denver. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Nuggets favored by 2 points with the O/U at 226.5.
Captain’s Picks
Damian Lillard ($17,100 CP) - Lillard is coming off a 38.5 DKFP performance in which he only played 31 minutes and shot 1-for-10 from the floor. Portland still won by 20 points! What?! I’m willing to bet real American dollars, Mexican pesos, and/or Korean won that doesn’t happen again. The spread is 2 points so this game should be close. If so, Lillard will play 40-plus minutes and garner a usage rate of 35%. In the prior three games, he put up 53, 68.5, and 59 DKFP. It’s Dame Time.
Nikola Jokic ($18,300 CP) - Jokic only played 27 minutes last game due to the blowout and dished out only one assist. He also shot 7-for-18 from the floor after shooting 51%, 75%, and 50% in the other three games. This game should be a close affair and Jokic should be heavily involved. The usage rate in the first three games of the series was in the 37% to 39% range. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $50K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st] (POR vs DEN)
UTIL Plays
Paul Millsap ($3,800) - I’m usually all about the minutes but I can’t deny what Millsap has done in this series. He hasn’t played over 15 minutes in any game but he’s gone for 21.5 and 30.25 DKFP in two of those contests. The usage rate was 27% and 30%. Not all is candy and unicorns, though, as he went for 7.5 and 14.25 DKFP in the other two games while garnering a usage rate of 18% and 15% respectively. So, the range is wide but the upside cannot be denied.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,400) - Anthony has averaged 22 minutes per game in this series. He has one game with 7 DKFP but has put up 27.25, 23, and 18.25 in the other three. The main thing for me is the opportunities. He’s attempted 11, 12, and 12 shots in three of the four games.
Facundo Campazzo ($7,400) - Campazzo is averaging 30 minutes per game and has put up 25.75, 32.25, 38.5, and 30 DKFP. He’s going to dish out assists and contribute in the defensive categories. He’s also pulled down some rebounds, so the floor is relatively high. He’s attempted 10, 9, and 10 shots in the last three games and only converted 30%, 33%, and 40%. There’s a touch of upside here if he can be more efficient.
Fades
Norman Powell ($10,500 CP; $7,000) - Powell is coming off a game in which he scored 29 points on 11-for-15 shooting from the field and contributed 40.5 DKFP. The usage rate was 24% after being at 19%, 20%, and 16% in the prior three games. An outlier game for Powell as he won’t usually be so efficient with an elevated usage rate. He doesn’t contribute much in the other categories so this is an easy fade for me. In the first three games of the series, he went for 21.75, 19, and 32 DKFP.
THE OUTCOME
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
I like Lillard to have a big game today but in a loss like how Games 2 and 3 played out. Jokic will return to MVP form while Michael Porter Jr. ($8,600) won’t go 1-for-3 from the field. I expect him to bounce back in a big way as the Nuggets take care of business at home.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $50K Pull Up Jumper [$10K to 1st] (POR vs DEN)
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