Thursday features a small six-game slate kicking off at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at all the angles from a daily fantasy and sportsbook perspective.
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Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Giants and the Nationals has been postponed due to inclement weather.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Rogers, $9,000, Miami Marlins (-225) vs. Colorado Rockies (+185) — We are so blessed to finally have Rogers get the respect he deserves. Because he’s buried on the Marlins, Rogers hasn’t received as much buzz as he should despite his impressive numbers. Now, everyone will see the Marlins are the biggest favorites on this slate with the 23-year old taking the hill.
Rogers has pitched the majority of his season on the road but when he’s been at home, he’s been almost untouchable. Through 21 innings, Rogers has just a .238 wOBA, a 2.28 FIP and has yet to allow a home run. He sports an overall 14.6% swing-and-miss rate from his three pitch arsenal, including 45% on his slider. The Rockies rank 29th against the slider, with only the Brewers ranking worse. Everything lines up for another stellar start for Rogers, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in 13 starts and has logged at least six strikeouts in 11 of them. The Marlins are also 8-5 in games that Rogers has started.
Other notable favorite:
Max Scherzer ($11,400; -165) vs. San Francisco Giants
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-135; 4.5 runs) at Minnesota Twins (+115; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — So I had to make sure this game wasn’t being played at Coors Field because this is a MASSIVE total for game not being played there. 11 god damn runs, with the over getting even money (+100). That’s just wild.
So, why is this total so large? Well folks, it’s because Michael King ($5,700) is taking on J.A. Happ ($5,800). Starting with Happ, he’s allowed a total of 26 runs on 36 hits over his last five starts, which spans 23 innings. As for King, he recently entered the rotation and has allowed six runs on nine hits in 7 2⁄3 innings. The Twins bullpen specifically has also been taxed pretty hard as of late, throwing a total of 27 2⁄3 innings over the past week. That ranks them as the fifth-most in the league over that span. This is great for the over as it could mean that either Happ is hung out to dry if he’s getting hit hard OR we get relievers that have thrown a lot lately. Either way, it’s good signs for a potential over.
I only have to include one game in this section today and that makes me very happy.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals - Very unlikely they’ll play this game (at least as of this morning) if the rain makes it over the park. A delay is not out of the question either, so make sure to give this one a look before first pitch.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .355, 3.74
Eduardo Rodriguez, .348, 3.71
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .345, 4.76
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .199, 1.83
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .228, 1.51
Zack Greinke, .234, 3.17
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
J.A. Happ, .366, 5.11
Frankie Montas, .363, 5.39
Eduardo Rodriguez, .353, 3.69
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .220, 2.98
Trevor Rogers, .260, 2.55
Max Scherzer, .292, 4.22
Pitcher to Build Around
If you’re not playing Trevor Rogers tonight, please leave this article and block me on Twitter and your life.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, $4,400 — Bichette isn’t all that expensive and draws a really good matchup against Dallas Keuchel ($6,100). The White Sox pitcher isn’t one to strikeout many batters, instead relying on contact for outs. That’s great and all IF you’re actually getting hitters out, which he’s not.
Entering this game, Bichette has a solid .384 wOBA with a .231 ISO and three of the 11 home runs he’s hit. Keuchel has not pitched well at home and that’s apparent with a 5.43 FIP and five of the nine total home runs he’s allowed to righties. With the recent struggles that Keuchel has endured (.348 wOBA, 5.27 FIP in May), I think this is an excellent spot for Bichette to extend his current eight-game hitting streak.
Save Big by Drafting
Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, $2,600 — Getting a piece of this game is likely going to be a key part of this slate. I mean, when you have a game an over/under of 11, offense is going to be plentiful. If you want to get some cheap exposure, Andujar could be a way to do it. His overall numbers aren’t great and quite frankly same goes for his splits against lefties. However, he’s quietly been crushing the ball in the month of June and has a .428 wOBA, a .444 ISO with four home runs in seven games. For someone seeing the ball as well as he is, he’s totally worth taking a shot with at $2,600.
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