It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of day baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and think I’ve picked out three winners. Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
When you find someone as special as Luis Castillo, you take advantage. It’s only once in a lifetime a guy this good at losing comes around. The Reds are 2-10 this season in Castillo’s starts, meaning a bettor simply fading Castillo every time out would be up a significant amount considering Cincinnati was favored in five of those losses, and a massive -222 favorite in one of the two wins.
Put simply, Castillo has been ineffective. Win-loss record is not often a great barometer for success, but in this case it’s hard to make an argument that he doesn’t deserve his 2-8 record. It’s true that his fastball velocity has recovered a bit from a rocky start to the season, but that hasn’t brought any more success. Castillo’s still only striking out 19.5% of hitters while walking 8.8%, and his xwOBA on contact has ballooned to .364.
I don’t care whether or not you like the Brewers’ offense, you simply must back it here against a struggling righty and with Freddy Peralta of all people on the hill. The righty has been nothing short of dominant this season, and should feast on a whiff-happy heart of the Reds’ order. It’s pretty insane to get this kind of price on a guy this dominant, in such a lopsided matchup, but it appears the oddsmakers really believe in Luis Castillo after one good start. I don’t.
You’d be hard-pressed to find an offense hotter than the Astros. They sit atop baseball with a 165 wRC+ over the past week, and over the past two weeks are still sitting on that throne. Against lefties, too, the Astros claim the best wRC+ this season and have slugged .458 with just a 16.6% strikeout rate. Their performance against southpaws has been staggering, and rather impressive considering some of their best hitters — Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker — are left-handed. Eduardo Rodriguez has had himself a pretty good season, but he should be out-classed here against an Astros team putting together fantastic at-bats and with fantastic splits.
On the other hand, there’s Zack Greinke going against a struggling Boston lineup. He’s been a very weird pitcher this season, toeing the line between good and washed, but I side more on the side of him being good. He’s induced plenty of soft contact and has still been brilliant at limiting walks as he has over his whole career despite a dip in strikeout numbers. The man continues to reinvent himself, and he continues to win. Back him once again here.
Here, you have a pitcher facing a resurgent offense, and a lineup that hits lefties better than almost anyone going against a southpaw. Yet the total is rather low.
Frankie Montas is one of my favorite pitchers to fade in all of baseball, throwing a sinker that’s often elevated and over the heart of the plate, and allowing a dumb 46.5% hard-hit rate. As a sinker-baller, you want soft ground balls, but in Montas’ case he’s allowing a 14.7 degree launch angle, indicating many line drives and fly balls, and a ton of quality contact. That’s been the main reason he’s struggled, and the main reason I think a Royals offense hitting .269 over the past two weeks (fifth in baseball) can do some damage here.
Then, you’ve got the fifth-best offense against lefties, judging by wRC+, in the Oakland Athletics going against lefty Mike Minor. While his 4.02 xERA indicates he’s been slightly unlucky to have a 4.84 ERA, he still doesn’t profile well against the A’s with just slightly above-average strikeout numbers. I like runs to be scored all night long.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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