Friday features a 13-game slate kicking off at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at all the angles from a daily fantasy and sportsbook perspective.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Clayton Kershaw, $9,800, Los Angeles Dodgers (-315) vs. Texas Rangers (+270) — Kershaw and the Dodgers are massive favorites tonight against the Rangers in LA. This is a spot where the Dodgers have thrived on the moneyline, going 19-10 as home favorites.
Also working in the Dodgers favor is that the Rangers will be using Mike Foltynewicz ($5,900) who has struggled much more on the road than in Texas. Through 21 2/3 innings away from Globe Life Field, Folty has a .391 wOBA, a 5.64 FIP and five of the 13 total home runs he’s allowed. His strikeout numbers have consistently been falling over the past few years but now he’s at the lowest mark of his career with a 6.2 K/9. Opposing hitters are making more contact, posting a 37.5% hard-hit rate and a 41.1% flyball rate. Going against an extremely tough Dodgers lineup and the Rangers having lost four of his last six starts, the outlook doesn’t look great for the Rangers here.
Other notable favorite: Brandon Woodruff ($10,400; -278) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Highest Projected Total
Editor’s Note: Twins SP Bailey Ober will start in place of SP Matt Shoemaker in tonight’s game vs. the Astros.
Houston Astros (-155; 5.5 runs) at Minnesota Twins (+133; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — The Astros and Twins have been involved in some of the highest projected games totals over the past week. The Twins hit the over in each game against the Yankees while the Astros hit two out of three against the Red Sox. In conclusion these two teams remain the first and second best team with the over, going a combined 77-42-5 and covering 62% of the time.
Tonight is looking like it’ll be another potential over with Jose Urquidy ($8,600) going against Matt Shoemaker ($5,200). I mean, Shoemaker alone allows opposing teams to go over their team total on his own, having given up at least five runs in five of his 11 starts. Two of those starts he’s allowed eight runs, one of which was in his last start. As for Urquidy, he’s coming off his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays, allowing six runs on nine hits through 4 1⁄3 innings. Looking at these two pitchers, it’s hard to imagine taking an under, even with the total as high as it is.
I only have to include one game in this section today and that makes me very happy.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .420, 7.26
Matt Shoemaker, .405, 6.54
Tarik Skubal, .362, 3.15
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .158, 1.74
Blake Snell, .181, 1.58
Brandon Woodruff, .197, 1.80
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ross Stripling, .404, 5.23
Kyle Freeland, .390, 5.45
Blake Snell, .357, 4.88
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .148, -0.19
Brandon Woodruff, .191, 2.58
Anthony DeSclafani, .220, 2.99
Pitcher to Build Around
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres, $11,300 — I hate days where I have to write up deGrom. Like, wow no way! This dope is telling me to roster deGrom?! No wonder he writes for DraftKings!
Anyways, the matchup is a really good one against the Padres, a team he faced his last time out and shut them out through seven innings while striking out 11 for 39.4 DKFP. It feels as if that start sent the Padres offense into a tailspin, as over the past week they have just a .254 wOBA, a .086 ISO (!) and a 28% K%. Now they have to face deGrom again? Goodness. I don’t think I have to tell you that deGrom is been pitching well. You know that already.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies, $4,800 — Castellanos is having a hell of a season and it doesn’t feel like anyone is giving it much attention. For a guy who is averaging 10.2 DKFP overall and 12.3 DKFP specifically against lefties, it’s hard not to use him tonight. He’ll be facing Kyle Freeland ($5,500) who hasn’t exactly started his 2021 season on the right foot. In three starts, Freeland has already been tagged for nine runs on 19 hits in just 13 innings. Now he has to deal with Castellanos, who has a .492 wOBA, a .318 ISO and a 213 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Not much too think about here.
Save Big by Drafting
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, $3,600 — Vaughn is slowly starting to creep out of that ultra value range and he gets closer to $4,000. For now at least, we can still get him under that mark and in a great matchup. He’ll face Tarik Skubal ($6,900) who admittedly has been pitching well lately after some early struggles. He recently shut down this club but his overall numbers remain quite poor. Vaughn has also been a much, much better hitter against lefties thus far, posting a .445 wOBA, a .400 ISO and a 190 wRC+. While he remains cheap, Vaughn is worthy of using in one of your outfield spots.
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