There’s one bet on DraftKings Sportsbook from Friday’s early game I could not ignore. The others take you into the evening.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Cubs P Kohl Stewart will start Friday vs. the Cardinals.
The explanations for the other picks listed in this article will feature quite a bit of information based on my research on each bet. This one will not. Why? Well, Hendricks has given up six-plus hits in each of his last 10 starts. The only times he hasn’t this season were his first two starts of the year. Hendricks has been much improved of late, but he continues to pepper the over on Friday’s hits allowed prop with ease. I’ve already said more than I needed to. Don’t overthink this.
It’s been a little while since Alcantara hit the over on DraftKings Sportsbook’s strikeout prop for Friday. In fact, he’s only done that once since the start of May after striking out at least seven in three of his six April starts.
If you look at the last three teams he’s faced — the Phillies, Blue Jays and Pirates — they’re all among the 10 teams striking out the least against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. The same cannot be said for Alcantara’s opponent on Friday. Quite the opposite, actually.
The Braves are striking out against right-handed pitching more than any team in baseball over the last two weeks. Now, Alcantara didn’t hit the over on Friday’s prop when he saw Atlanta on April 12, but that was in the midst of a stretch where the Braves were one of the hardest teams for right-handers to strike out.
Also, Alcantara relies heavily on getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone, and the Braves haven’t exactly laid off those types of pitches of late (fourth-highest O-Swing% and 13th-worst O-Contact% over the last two weeks).
Kansas City hitters have been good to me of late, so I’m always looking for a way to get a piece of their games. The moment I saw they were facing Cole Irvin on Friday, I knew the Royals’ runs were in play.
Irvin may be coming off one of his best starts of the season, but that came against the Rockies on June 5. Sure, his performance carries a little weight since his six innings of one-run ball came in Colorado, but that team has been an easy target for pitchers this season.
Prior to his trip to Coors, Irvin had given up four runs to the Angels, four to the Mariners and five to the Astros. I have zero doubt about Kansas City’s offense — which is seventh in OPS and fourth in ISO against left-handers the last two weeks — putting up four runs in this one. In fact, it’d be surprising if the Royals don’t hit the over before Irvin exits the game.
Of course, all of those stats apply to Irvin’s hits allowed prop. One other thing to note on that front: the Oakland left-hander has hit the over on Friday’s prop in each of his last four outings.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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