Saturday’s MLB slate is a large one, with all 30 teams taking the field. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets ML (+110)
The Mets were able to secure a victory over the Padres on Friday, but they had the best pitcher in the world on the mound in Jacob deGrom. Things will be much tougher on Saturday, but I still think they’re a bit underpriced.
Marcus Stroman will get the ball, and he’s been excellent in his own right this season. He’s pitched to a 2.40 ERA through his first 13 starts. He doesn’t have the same dominant strikeout stuff as deGrom, but he excels at limiting the damage on balls in play. He owns a 53.9% ground ball rate, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters.
The Padres will also have an excellent starting pitcher on the mound in Joe Musgrove. He’s pitched to a 2.33 ERA, but the Mets were able to get to him the last time they met. They racked up three earned runs in just five innings thanks to eight hits and three homers. The Mets have also heated up after a slow start this season offensively, ranking first in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days.
Blue Jays ML (+108)
I think it’s pretty safe to say the Blue Jays were a bit unlucky yesterday. They became just the fourth team in the Statcast era to record at least 25 hard-hit balls. The previous three teams all scored at least 22 runs – and unsurprisingly won the game – while the Blue Jays managed just five runs in a loss.
That makes them an interesting buy-low target on Saturday. They’re taking on right-hander Nick Pivetta, and he’s been a bit lucky this season. Only 6.9% of his fly balls allowed have turned into homers, which is a major outlier compared to his career mark of 16.5%. The Blue Jays can do some damage against right-handers, ranking third in wRC+ and sixth in ISO, so perhaps his luck will turn around on Saturday.
On the other side, Blue Jays starter Steven Matz has been a bit unlucky. His 3.69 xFIP is nearly a full run lower than his traditional ERA, and the Red Sox are a pretty good matchup for left-handed pitchers. They rank just 19th in wRC+, and it’s possible they could be without one of their best right-handed bats in Xander Bogaerts. He was scratched from the lineup on Friday due to left knee soreness, so it’s possible he’s out of the lineup once again.
Vince Velasquez Under 5.5 strikeouts (+111)
Velasquez is a quality strikeout pitcher when everything breaks right for him. He’s posted a 10.72 K/9 this season after posting a 12.18 K/9 last year. That said, things don’t tend to break right for Velasquez very often.
He rarely pitches deep enough into games to actually let his strikeout upside come to fruition. He’s pitched four innings or less in each of his past two starts, and he’s finished with five strikeouts or less in each of his past three. The Yankees have struggled offensively this season, but they still have the talent to do plenty of damage in this matchup. Velasquez typically walks the ballpark – he averages 5.36 walks per nine innings – so a few key hits could knock Velasquez out early.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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