Monday features a 13-game main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($9,900) – Every elite pitcher has a tough matchup Monday, but Lynn’s is tougher on paper than it is in real life. In May, Tampa Bay ranked first in terms of WAR. In June, they rank 18th in WAR. Their season-long averages look great, but they’re sputtering at the moment. Lynn’s traditional numbers have been awesome this season (seven wins, 9.9 K/9 and 1.23 ERA), and he should be able to limit Tampa’s strong left-handed batters (.234 wOBA, .096 ISO and 26% hard-hit rate). Tyler Glasnow ($10,700) has better strikeout stuff, but his matchup is much tougher than a matchup vs. the Rays and their 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Alek Manoah ($8,200)
Jon Lester, Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($6,700) – Pittsburgh cannot hit left-handed pitching (77 wRC+, .280 wOBA, .134 ISO and 27% hard-hit rate). Lester is no longer a star pitcher, but he does enough things right that he should be able to handle a bad Pirates team. His O-swing% is 34% and his swinging strike rate is 11%. He’s not making batters look foolish, but they’re uncomfortable enough that their hard-contact rate is a mere 21% and the average exit velocity against Lester is 87.2 mph. This approach seems a lot like the final seasons of Greg Maddux. Lester’s 88.5 mph fastball might get him into trouble from time to time, but not Monday; Pittsburgh ranks dead last against fastballs.
Other Option: Matthew Boyd ($6,800)
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Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs at New York Mets ($4,800) – A right-handed Cubs stack might be popular against lefty David Peterson ($7,600). He has allowed a .366 wOBA, .264 ISO and 2.0 HR/9 to right-handed batters. He doesn’t get blown up (3.62 xFIP), so DFS players may want to pick their spots against Peterson. Contreras has a .450 wOBA, .339 ISO, 189 wRC+ and 39% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season.
Other Option: Will Smith ($4,400)
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers ($3,900) – With Joey Votto’s ($4,100) return, Stephenson is going to have to fight for playing time, but he deserves it. Stephenson should get a spot in the lineup Monday against Eric Lauer ($7,900). Against left-handed pitching, Stephenson has a .413 wOBA, .351 ISO, 161 wRC+ and a 45% hard-hit rate. In 28 innings, Lauer has struggled with right-handed batters (.408 wOBA, .300 ISO, 48% hard-hit rate and 3.2 HR/9). Stephenson has been a much better hitter at Cincinnati, but American Family Field is not a significant downgrade for hitters.
Other Option: Eric Haase ($4,200)
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs at New York Mets ($5,900) – His numbers against left-handed pitching are unbelievable (.566 wOBA, .500 ISO, 265 wRC+ and 50% had-hit rate). As mentioned above, David Peterson ($7,600) has struggled with right-handed batters. He doesn’t have many ways to get right-handed batters out. Righties have a .561 wOBA against his slider. Kris Bryant has been one of the best hitters against sliders this season. Peterson can’t use the slider on Bryant, so he’ll have to groove some fastballs over the plate. Bryant has a .590 wOBA against left-handed fastballs.
Other Option: Matt Olson ($5,700)
Jesus Aguilar, Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals ($4,000) – Any time a Marlin is on the road, they should attract attention in DFS. At home, Aguilar has a .307 wOBA and a .165 ISO. On the road, he has a .375 wOBA and a .255 ISO. Everywhere is Colorado when your home games are in Miami. Aguilar is a better hitter against the right-handed pitching (.358 wOBA, .228 ISO and 133 wRC+), and Adam Wainwright ($8,800) has struggled with right-handed power this season (.201 ISO and 1.7 HR/9). If Wainwright magically pieces together a quality start, Aguilar will still get at-bats against the worst bullpen in baseball.
Other Option: Brandon Belt ($4,400)
Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox ($5,000) – In the 38 games since May 1, Semien has 53 hits and 15 BB (.430 wOBA and .269 ISO). Against right-handed pitching, he has a .400 wOBA, .253 ISO and a 155 wRC+. Nathan Eovaldi ($8,600) is a solid pitcher, but he is allowing a .364 wOBA to right-handed batters.
Other Option: Jorge Polanco ($4,900)
Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers ($4,300) – Prospects take a while to develop. In April, India had .291 wOBA and a .119 ISO. In May, he had a .318 wOBA and a .119 ISO. In June, he has a .435 wOBA and a .257 ISO. India’s stock is still going up because he only has a .267 wOBA and .079 ISO at home. All of his damage is being done on the road (.408 wOBA and .236 ISO). Imagine what his numbers will look like when he starts to hit at Cincinnati during the hot summer months, when the ball is flying. This game isn’t in Cincinnati, but the ball flies in Milwaukee, and the prospect is starting to live up to his potential.
Other Option: Tony Kemp ($2,800)
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles ($5,700) – It’s disappointing that Ramirez won’t get to face Matt Harvey on Monday. That was going to be a free square, but the insertion of Dean Kremer ($6,200) into this spot in Baltimore’s rotation doesn’t really change anything. In 16 innings against left-handed batters, Kremer has allowed a .406 wOBA and a .323 ISO. Ramirez should make those numbers worse. He has a .403 wOBA, .349 ISO, 157 wRC+ and a 43% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Rafael Devers ($5,600)
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins ($3,400) – There is always an opportunity to chase a cheap home run with Seager. He is a better play on the road, but he’s cheap and the matchup makes up for the park disadvantage. Kenta Maeda ($7,400) has struggled with left-handed batters this season (.357 wOBA, .230 ISO, 35% hard-hit rate and 2.0 HR/9)
Other Option: Joey Wendle ($4,000)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Cubs SS Javier Baez is not in the lineup Monday vs. the Mets.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs at New York Mets ($4,700) – There are some great shortstops in Coors Field tonight, but Baez is cheaper and in a better spot. Peterson has struggled with right-handed batters, and 36 innings is not a small sample size. Baez has a .273 ISO against left-handed pitching, and his team stack is much better than a Rockies or Padres stack. One note: Baez sat Sunday night due to a thumb issue. If it looks like he will be a last-minute decision, then the Coors Field shortstops are safer plays.
Other Option: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100)
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins ($3,800) – From Opening Day to May 28, Crawford had a .282 wOBA and a .070 ISO. Since May 29, he has a .406 wOBA and a .222 ISO. DFS players aren’t typically drawn to one of the league leaders in soft contact, but he’s a throwback to the Texas Leaguers of a century ago. Bloop hitters do not break slates, but every player in a DFS lineup doesn’t need to crush.
Other Option: Brandon Crawford ($4,100)
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners ($5,200) – He is always a great play when he faces left-handed pitching (.439 wOBA, .266 ISO, 183 wRC+ and 45% hard-hit rate), but he is an automatic play against bad left-handed pitching. Somehow Marco Gonzales ($6,000) has strung together three consecutive seasons with a winning record despite poor advanced metrics, but it’s finally catching up with him this season. Against right-handed batters, he is allowing a .413 wOBA, .323 ISO, 42% hard-hit rate and 2.6 HR/9.
Other Option: Nick Castellanos ($4,800)
Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals ($3,800) – Over the last week, Grossman has a .539 wOBA and a .381 ISO. Brad Keller ($6,400) is allowing a .376 wOBA and a 41% hard-hit rate to left-handed batters. If Grossman cannot get it done against Keller, then he’ll face one of the weakest bullpens in baseball (4.33 xFIP).
Other Option: Adam Duvall ($3,800), Anthony Santander ($3,000)
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