Chicago will play host to a big-time pitchers’ duel on Monday, so I knew DraftKings Sportsbook would have at least one bet I could back in that game. The other two bets I’m eyeing also include Midwest teams.
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The Rays have not been good against right-handed pitching of late. Tampa Bay hitters are striking out the third-most frequently against righties over the last two weeks while also ranking 19th in OPS against righty pitchers during that span. And now they have to take on one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball on Monday
Rocking a 9.87 K/9 and 27.7% strikeout rate on the season, Lynn has improved his 2021 swinging strike rate, O-contact% and O-swing% over his last three starts. Although he didn’t hit the over on Monday’s prop much throughout May (1-for-6), he didn’t face a single team that was among the 10 lowest in plate appearances per strikeouts against righties throughout the month. The last team Lynn faced, Toronto, isn’t striking out much at all against righties of late, yet he punched out the Blue Jays nine times. Going up against a team that can’t do much at all against righties at the moment, eight strikeouts are well within reach for Chicago’s Monday night starter.
The Reds are seeing left-handed pitching very well of late, ranking seventh in OPS and fifth in ISO against lefties over the last two weeks. So, they shouldn’t have a tough time against Eric Lauer, who’s struggled since mid-May with his role on Milwaukee staff in flux. Also, his last outing came against Cincinnati, which is the type of situation where I feel very comfortable backing the offense over the starter — especially when the pitcher isn’t a frontline arm.
I also have no hesitation about fading Milwaukee’s bullpen. Brewers relievers have a 2.01 ERA over the last two weeks, but they’ve faced the Tigers, Pirates and Diamondbacks, on top of the Reds, during that stretch. Outside of Cincinnati, each of those teams are among the 11 worst in wOBA over the last two weeks and among the 10 worst in the same category for the entire season.
The Mariners aren’t exactly hitting well of late, but Oakland and Cleveland each scored three runs apiece against Kenta Maeda in his last two starts — both doing so in five innings or less. Seattle has a similar ISO against righties over the last two weeks to Oakland, and Cleveland’s ISO against righties over the last two weeks ranks among the six worst in all of baseball.
If the Mariners can help Maeda maintain his rough trend, Minnesota hitters won’t have to do much against Marco Gonzales — though they shouldn’t have a tough time against him. The Twins rank fifth in OPS and eighth in ISO against left-handers over the last two weeks. Gonzales had been pitching better before his outing vs. the Tigers, who he surrendered four runs against in four innings. Tigers hitters have been better than they were to open the season, but they’re still not nearly on the same level as the Minnesota offense Gonzales will face Monday.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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