Every single team is playing tonight. You absolutely love to see it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yu Darvish, $9,400, San Diego Padres (-235) at Colorado Rockies (+195) — This game is going to be looked at for numerous reasons. Not only is Darvish the biggest favorite but this game also features the highest game total at 11.5.
This will be the third time that Darvish will face the Rockies this season, which has seen him go 11 innings allowing one run (zero earned) on six hits while striking out 12. The Padres are of course 2-0 in those starts, both of which came in back-to-back starts for Darvish in May. To be fair, Darvish has been a bit shaky as of late, allowing nine runs on 11 hits through 17 1⁄3 innings over his last three starts. His advanced numbers confirm those struggles, especially against the Astros where his 7.20 ERA was aligned with his 6.15 FIP. Nonetheless, this Rockies offense continues to struggle immensely.
I’m not exactly looking to back the Padres on the moneyline, as the offense continues to scuffle. Over the past week, this team is slashing .175/.237/.295 with a 31.2% K% and only a .120 ISO. While they SHOULD win, the price is simply too steep. With all 30 teams taking the field tonight, I’d be more inclined to look elsewhere.
Other notable favorite: Lance McCullers Jr ($8,700; -195) vs. Texas Rangers
Highest Projected Total
San Diego Padres (-235; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+195; 4.5 runs) 11.5 runs — As was the case last night, both of these teams have the same totals with the Padres at 6.5 and the Rockies at 4.5. As mentioned above, both offenses continue to stumble and only combined for five runs, which was well below the expected 11 total runs. Entering this game, the Padres are now 33-34-1 overall with the over and 19-13-1 as the road team. The Rockies are 30-34-2 with the over and 16-17-2 as the home team.
As mentioned, the Padres offense is really dragging as of late. They’ll face Chi Chi Gonzalez ($5,600) who has somehow pitched well at Coors. through 21 1/3 innings, he has a .297 wOBA, a 3.06 FIP and hasn’t yet allowed a home run. For comparison, when he’s on the road, he has a .404 wOBA, a 6.43 FIP and nine home runs allowed. I can’t figure that out and neither will you. Regardless, I simply can’t take the over in this game. It’s gross to think that Gonzalez is one of the reasons I don’t want to take the over but for whatever reason, he’s making it work at Coors. Add that with a Padres team that can’t hit a lick at the moment and 11.5 feels like a daunting number to overcome.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .364, 3.82
Luis Castillo, .360, 4.27
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .355, 4.91
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .140, 1.22
Taijuan Walker, .218, 2.57
Tyler Anderson, .219, 3.62
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .418, 4.63
Patrick Corbin, .397, 6.40
J.A. Happ, .376, 5.43
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Taijuan Walker, .252, 3.06
Kyle Gibson, .255, 3.31
Trevor Rogers, .268, 2.64
Pitcher to Build Around
Taijuan Walker, New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs, $8,800 — Despite every team taking the field tonight, I find this to be a rather tough pitching selection. My guy Trevor Rogers ($10,000) is very much in play but I do worry about a good hitting Cardinals lineup against lefties that also doesn’t strikeout much. When Rogers faced them earlier this season, he scored just 13.4 DKFP through four innings.
I find myself gravitating toward Walker against the Cubs. His solid numbers haven’t been a fluke, as his 2.07 ERA almost matches his 2.84 FIP. He’s striking out less than a batter an inning but he’s nearly at that mark with an 8.8 K/9. The Cubs have been a team that strikeouts often with a 25.1% K%, which ranks 9th in the league. They’ve also been ranked around the middle of the pack offensively, so this draws up as one of the better matchups on the slate. Walker faced them once already and while he only went 3 2⁄3 innings, he struck out seven (!) in the process. At $8,800, I’m putting Walker in my top spot.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox, $5,600 — You’ll see the DTD tag next to Acuna when you roster him but he’s expected to be in the lineup against the Red Sox. He was removed on Sunday for precautionary reasons but is fully expected to play despite suffering a tightness in his right pectoral. The matchup is one I don’t want to miss out on, as Acuna will be facing Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,800) who is doing everything in his power to put men on base. Rodriguez has allowed no less four runs in four of his last five starts and a home run in four-straight.
As for Acuna, he’s thrived against lefties overall but specifically at home. He enters with a .442 wOBA, a .364 ISO and a 182 wRC+ in these matchups. With how much Rodriguez is struggling, this feels like a no-brainer.
Save Big by Drafting
Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins, $2,600 — This is a laughable salary for someone who is averaging 10.4 DKFP over his last 10 games and 7.8 DKFP on the season against lefties. Moore has the luxury of facing J.A. Happ ($6,700), who one has to question whose side he’s actually on. With the way he’s been pitching, one would think he’s not on the Twins side. He wrapped up the month of May with a .401 wOBA, a 4.22 FIP and a 38.2% hard-hit rate. Spoiler alert, those numbers haven’t improved in two June starts.
Then we have Moore who doesn’t have impressive numbers on the surface but his .343 wOBA and a .212 ISO against lefties will do the trick. With both second base and outfield eligibility, you have no excuse.
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