Tuesday’s MLB slate is a large one, with all 30 teams taking the field. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Rangers are not a particularly good baseball team, but they will have their ace on the mound on Tuesday. Kyle Gibson has been fantastic for them this season, pitching to a 2.13 ERA over his first 12 starts. His advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some regression — his .234 batting average on balls in play is unsustainably low — but his 3.40 FIP is still pretty darn good. He’ll have his work cut out for him against the Astros, who rank first in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, but Gibson should be able to keep their offense in check. He’s limited their bats to just three run over 13.0 innings in his other appearances vs. the Astros this season.
Gibson should also get some run support from the Rangers’ offense. They’re taking on right-hander Lance McCullers, who will be making his first start following a stint on the IL. McCullers is a good pitcher, but the Rangers’ offense has some quality hitters against right-handed pitching.
Overall, +160 moneyline odds give the Rangers an implied probability of just 38.5% in this matchup, and I think they have a decent chance of pulling off the upset.
The Angels are another underdog I like on Tuesday. They appear to be a preferred target for the sharp bettors as well, receiving 52% of the moneyline dollars on just 25% of the bets.
They’ll send Andrew Heaney to the mound, who has pitched to a 3.65 xFIP through his first 11 starts. He’s increased his K/9 to 10.77, and he should generate plenty of whiffs vs. the A’s. They’ve been strong against left-handed pitching, in general, this season, but they own the 11th-highest strikeout rate in that split.
On the other side, Frankie Montas will take the hill for the A’s. Montas has been worse against RHB than LHB this season, which doesn’t bode well against a righty-heavy Angels’ lineup. Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh are the only projected left-handed hitters currently in their lineup, and those two also rake against right-handed pitchers. I’m expecting Montas to struggle in this matchup.
Castillo is in an interesting spot tonight vs. the Brewers. On one hand, the Brewers are one of the best matchups in the league for right-handed pitchers. They own the sixth-highest strikeout rate in that split, and they also rank just 28th in wRC+.
On the other hand, Castillo just hasn’t been very effective this season. He’s pitched to a 6.47 ERA through his first 13 starts, and his K/9 has dropped to a career-low 8.44. He averaged 11.44 strikeouts per nine innings last season, so he’s been significantly worse in that department to start the year. His spin rates have stayed pretty consistent compared to last season on most of his pitches, but his whiff rates have dropped off a cliff. His whiff rate on his changeup — which is his most used pitch — has fallen by more than 10%. The marks on his slider and fastball have also decreased sharply.
Add it all up, and even the Brewers should be able to put the ball in play against Castillo. He’ll likely need to pitch at least six innings to hit the over on his current prop, and he hasn’t shown the ability to pitch deep into ballgames this season. I’m happy to roll the dice on his under at the current number.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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