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You know what I love? 15 game slates. You know what else I love? Sushi. I might get some tonight.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chris Paddack, $8,300, San Diego Padres (-220) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+180) — This is a very curious line to me. The Padres have been scuffling at the plate before cranking out six runs last night, which included four in the ninth last night to earn the walk-off win. However, over the past week, they were averaging just 3.8 runs, which is very unlike this team. Are they back? The walk-off win could have absolutely been the boost this team so desperately needed but it’s still yet to be seen.
The Padres are 7-5 in starts that Paddack makes this season. He’s only faced the Mets in two starts in June, going 12 innings allowing five runs on 12 hits with 15 strikeouts. This is by far the toughest matchup he’s had a minute, against an offense that continues to rake during the month of June. This club has a .341 wOBA, a .199 ISO and a 114 wRC+ this month while only striking out 20.1% of the time. The Reds have been road underdogs 24 times this season and have a 13-11 record in that scenario. Granted, they’re running out Tony Santillan ($6,800) to the mound, who has exhibited some really shaky control in the minors but I simply can’t get behind taking the steep -220 for the Padres in this spot.
Other notable favorite: Alex Cobb ($8,800; -220) vs. Detroit Tigers
Highest Projected Total
Milwaukee Brewers (-186; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+160; 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — Another interesting line despite with this being at Coors Field BUT Corbin Burnes ($10,200) is taking the mound. It’s no secret that Burnes has been nearly untouchable, allowing just 18 runs (16 earned) through 63 1⁄3 innings this season. Some may look at his last start against the Pirates and be shocked at the outcome, but his 6.75 ERA was no where close to the 1.42 FIP he made, meaning he was extremely unlucky in that start. I think it’s safe to say, Burnes is still in play as normal.
The over on the Rockies team total is also at plus money with the juice on under 4.5 runs at -130. Of the 11 starts Burnes has made, only three of them have featured three or more runs allowed by him. Surprisingly, the Brewers are only 5-6 in starts made my Burnes, as the bullpen has blown his starts numerous times. Of the games Burnes has allowed one run or less, the Brewers are 2-3. Nonetheless, Burnes has immense strikeout upside and should have his way with a Rockies team that swings-and-misses early and often. I would take the over on the Brewers team total and leave the game total on the board.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st
Weather Notes
Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates — This seems to be the only game of any danger of seeing a delay or worse. Rain will be around near the beginning of later part of the evening so this will need a second look before first pitch.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .454, 8.27
Jose Berrios, .395, 4.98
Chad Kuhl, .393, 6.93
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .146, 0.61
Yusei Kikuchi, .210, 4.27
Alex Cobb, .249, 2.64
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chris Paddack, .371, 5.23
Antonio Senzatela, .361, 4.97
Alex Cobb, .357, 2.43
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .188, 0.92
James Kaprielian, .211, 2.61
Jose Berrios, .217, 2.71
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, $8,500 — I don’t feel as if we have many slam dunk pitching options on tonight’s slate. Burnes is an option of course, but I can’t say I go out of my way to take pitchers at Coors Field, especially at $10K+. I think Berrios is one of the better options on this slate going against the Rangers. He’s been dominant against righties with a .217 wOBA, a 2.71 FIP and a 9.3 K/9 on the season against them. Overall, the Rangers numbers against righties continue to tank and now sit at .298 wOBA, a .145 ISO and a 89 wRC+. Mix that with the fourth-highest K% in the league against righties and Berrios feels to be in an amazing spot at $8,500.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees, $5,900 — Targeting against Jameson Taillon ($7,100) has been the way to go lately so why stop now? Taillon should be well rested coming into this game, seeing as he only lasted a 1⁄3 of an inning against the Phillies the last time out, allowing four runs on five hits for a whopping -10.9 DKFP. He’s been struggling against lefties as it is and now has to face the Olson, who is averaging 10.5 DKFP over his last 10 games. Taillon has a .390 wOBA, a 5.69 FIP and six of the 10 he’s allowed to lefties this season. Don’t just give me Olson, give me every lefty in this lineup tonight.
Save Big by Drafting
Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, $3,200 — The Phillies have been rolling with Herrera in the leadoff spot and you know what? It’s been working. As a leadoff hitter, Herrera is slashing .303/.333/.470 with two home runs, seven RBI and 14 runs scored in 14 games. Tonight he faced Johnny Cueto ($7,900), who is always someone to target against with lefties. Cueto is sporting a .362 wOBA, with a 4.15 FIP only a 16.2% K% on the season. Getting someone as cheap as Herrera in the leadoff spot AND a good matchup? Can’t beat it.
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