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Friday’s NBA slate features Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals series between the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Game 5 of this series was extremely entertaining. The 76ers jumped out to a huge lead — they were up by as many as 26 points in the first half — but the Hawks came roaring back in the second. They completely erased that deficit and ultimately secured an upset win on the road. That means they’ll have the chance to close out this series with a win at home on Friday.
The biggest culprit for the 76ers’ collapse was their bench unit. Most of their starters delivered what they were supposed to, but Philadelphia’s reserves were badly outplayed. They were outscored by 17 points with Matisse Thybulle ($1,400) on the floor, 14 points with Dwight Howard ($2,200) on the floor and eight points with Shake Milton ($1,000) on the floor. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Doc Rivers has hinted that he’ll shorten his rotation in a must-win contest.
The Hawks have unsurprisingly moved to -167 favorites to win this series on DraftKings Sportsbook, but the 76ers are listed as three-point road favorites in Game 6. If they can win this contest, it will set up a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Philadelphia.
DraftKings is offering up a Showdown slate for this contest, so let’s break down some of the top options to consider for your lineups.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Captain’s Picks
Joel Embiid ($19,200 CP) – Embiid continues to play through a small tear in his meniscus, but he’s been extremely effective for the majority of this series. He did struggle in Game 4, but he bounced back with a huge performance in Game 5. He stuffed the stat sheet, finishing with 72.75 DKFP thanks to 37 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, two steals and four blocks. Expect Embiid to carry another large workload in a must-win contest.
He’s expensive on today’s slate — he’ll cost nearly 40% of the salary cap to use at Captain — but no one in this matchup can match his upside.
John Collins ($12,000 CP) – Collins is one of my favorite pure values on this slate. He’s priced at $12K if you want to use him at Captain, which makes him just the seventh-most expensive option.
Collins got off to a slow start in this series, but he has scored at least 36.0 DKFP in back-to-back games. Collins has averaged 1.06 DKFP per minute this season, so there’s no reason he can’t return value again on Friday.
UTIL Plays
Trae Young ($11,600) – Young and Embiid are the two studs I’m looking to pair together on today’s slate. Embiid is my preferred choice if I’m paying up at Captain, but both players are basically mandatory.
Young was fantastic for the Hawks in their comeback win on Wednesday. He scored 39 points and handed out seven assists, resulting in 56.75 DKFP. Overall, his average of 1.36 DKFP per minute this season trails only Embiid in this matchup, and Young should play around 40 minutes. That makes him a good bet to return value.
Furkan Korkmaz ($4,600) – Korkmaz is someone who I expect to see a few additional minutes on Friday. The 76ers were +22 with Korkmaz on the court in Game 5, so he was one of their most effective role players. He finished with just 15.75 DKFP in that contest, but he scored more fantasy points in fewer minutes in his previous two contests. If he can get to 30 minutes in Game 6, he has a chance to be one of the best values on the slate.
Matisse Thybulle ($1,400) – If Korkmaz does see a few additional minutes in Game 6, there’s a good chance they will come from Thybulle. That said, Thybulle is so cheap that it shouldn’t really impact his fantasy value. He’s going to play a solid handful of minutes to try and shut down Young, and Thybulle is capable of providing some value with his defensive stats. He’s not a huge threat to score the ball, but he did knock down both of his three-point attempts in Game 5.
Fades
Clint Capela ($8,800) – Capela is an interesting contrarian option on Friday. He’s been a major disappointment in this series, but he did average a stout 1.27 DKFP per during the regular season. Sill, it’s hard to envision a huge bounce-back performance vs. Embiid. Not only is he one of the best defensive centers in the league, but he also has the knack for getting opposing centers into foul trouble. Capela has scored 37.0 DKFP or fewer in each of the first five games in this series, and he’s likely looking at another subpar performance in Game 6.
The Outcome
This is a very interesting matchup. The Hawks are favored to win the series, but the 76ers are favored on the road in Game 6. If they win this contest, they will undoubtedly be sizable favorites at home in Game 7. That means there could be some betting value with the 76ers for the series if you think they can win on Friday. It also means that this is likely the Hawks’ best chance of closing things out.
I’m expecting a much tighter rotation for the 76ers in this contest, which makes them a nice fantasy target. Their offense is built around Embiid, but they have some interesting value options, as well.
On the Hawks’ side, expect them to continue to play through Young offensively. Bogdan Bogdanovic ($8,400) and Danilo Gallinari ($6,000) should serve as their secondary playmakers, with Lou Williams ($2,400) handling those responsibilities off the bench.
As for the game itself, the Hawks’ blueprint in Game 5 is clearly unsustainable in Game 6. They won the bench minutes by such a drastic margin in their last contest, and Rivers is not going to give them the opportunity to do that again on Friday. I think the 76ers should be able to secure the victory, setting up a winner-take-all matchup in Game 7.
Final Score: 76ers 109, Hawks 100
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