Saturday’s MLB slate is a large one, with 16 different games to choose from. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates ML (+100)
These two teams combined for 21 runs last night, with the Pirates ultimately pulling out an 11-10 victory. I don’t think I’m going out on a huge limb to say tonight’s game should be much lower scoring.
The Pirates will send Wil Crowe to the mound, and he’s coming off his best start of the year in his most recent outing vs. the Brewers. He finished with eight strikeouts over five innings, resulting in a 0.57 FIP. He was at one point considered a decent prospect, but his results in the majors have been disappointing early in his career. Maybe that start against the Brewers will represent a turning point for Crowe. He’ll have the opportunity for another solid outing vs. Cleveland, which ranks just 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
On the other side, the Pirates’ offense is as strong as it’s been all season. They got Ke’Bryan Hayes back from an injury recently, and he is a bonafide future star. He posted a 195 wRC+ in limited playing time last year, and he’s followed that up with a 144 wRC+ in 2021. The Pirates also have Colin Moran back in the lineup – who rakes against right-handed pitchers – and Bryan Reynolds, who is red-hot at the moment. Overall, I think they can secure the victory in this matchup.
White Sox ML (+130)
I don’t understand why the White Sox are moderate underdogs in this matchup. They’re going to have one of the best pitchers on the mound in Lance Lynn. He’s been phenomenal this season, pitching to a 1.51 ERA and 10.05 K/9 through his first 12 starts. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for a bit of regression – his .222 BABIP is unsustainably low – but he’s still been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.
The Astros are a dangerous lineup, ranking first in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, but they’re not quite as intimidating with Alex Bregman on the IL.
The Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound, and he has also been tremendous to start the year. He’s pitched to a 1.42 ERA, but he’s only made four starts. He actually owns a higher FIP and xFIP than he did last season, so he’s a regression candidate moving forward. The White Sox absolutely rake against left-handed pitching, ranking first in the league in wRC+ in that split. Ultimately, I trust Lynn and the White Sox offense more than Valdez and the Astros’ offense, particularly since the White Sox are underdogs.
Alex Wood over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
Let’s wrap things up with a player prop bet. Wood has been solid for the Giants this season, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 8.71 K/9, and he’s in a nice spot for strikeouts on Saturday. The Phillies have been generous with strikeouts vs. left-handed pitchers this season, posting the sixth-highest strikeout rate in that split. He’s racked up at least six strikeouts in five of his past seven starts, so I think he can hit that threshold again in a good matchup.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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