Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, $11,400
In the Game 4 win Monday night, Westbrook shot a miserable 16% from the field, but still recorded a massive triple-double for 72.25 DKFP. The main differences from this showing compared to the first four contests of the series was an insane 42 minutes of work for the point guard, and the fact that Joel Embiid (knee) exited after only 11 minutes and did not return. The center is a top-20 player in defensive real plus-minus this season, and the Sixers’ defense is a much softer unit with Embiid off the floor.
In the last five full tilts the superstar has missed, Philadelphia has surrendered 116.4 points per game. To put this into perspective, they are only allowing 108.1 points per game for the season. Listed as doubtful, Embiid isn’t expected to suit up for Game 5, and DraftKings Sportsbook has this matchup’s total at a slate-high 229.5 points. Trailing 3-1, Westbrook should play nearly the entire game and grind out over 60 DKFP.
Other Options: Ja Morant ($8,600), Derrick Rose ($7,300)
Rajon Rondo, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, $4,800
Rondo has chipped in with 23 DKFP per game so far in this series against the Mavs. Before the Game 4 blowout, we saw a competitive contest in Game 3, and Ty Lue opted for Rondo as the Clippers’ closing point guard. The two-time NBA champ logged 26 minutes that night, and this is the type of minutes upside Rondo has Wednesday, barring another blowout.
Generating 1.1 DKFP per minute for the playoffs, the veteran brings 30 DKFP upside tonight and shouldn’t be highly owned. For DraftKings’ main GPP of the night, Rondo has been less than 10% owned for back-to-back games.
Other Options: Tyrese Maxey ($3,600)
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Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $8,200
In his first three games back from an ankle injury, Mitchell’s minutes have increased in each contest, and so has his fantasy production. He peaked with 49.5 DKFP across 35 minutes in Monday’s Game 4 win, and Mitchell should remain in the 35-40 minute range for the rest of this series.
In five matchups with Memphis this season, the All-Star is contributing 45.5 DKFP per game, and this is a very low asking price for Mitchell at full strength.
Other Options: Bradley Beal ($9,300)
Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, $4,700
Jackson has started over Patrick Beverley for the last two games, and has been a huge factor in the Clippers tying this series. With over 30 minutes in each contest, Jackson has supplied 26.25 DKFP per game in these past two wins for Los Angeles. Considering the results with him as a starter, Jackson should continue to see big minutes for Wednesday’s pivotal Game 5.
In the 19 contests Jackson has seen a minimum of 30 minutes this season, he is providing a strong 32.6 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Grayson Allen ($3,800), Raul Neto ($3,300)
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, $9,600
Leonard has been incredible in this best of seven against Dallas, scoring 56.75 DKFP per game. After only averaging 34.1 minutes per game in the regular season, the two-time NBA Finals MVP has obtained 39.6 minutes per game in the postseason.
Leonard is a steal at this sub $10,000 price tag, and in my best advice, don’t over think this one and make Leonard one of your core plays for this four-game slate.
Other Options: Luka Doncic ($10,800)
Nicolas Batum, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks, $4,300
With Ivica Zubac struggling to make an impact, Ty Lue benched the big man and started Batum on Sunday night. The veteran tallied 28.25 DKFP in 36 minutes as a member of the centerless starting five for the Clippers, and they cruised to a 25-point blowout win. After this convincing effort, a lineup change would be surprising for Los Angeles, and Batum should gain at least 30 minutes in Game 5.
The versatile forward is collecting 24.9 DKFP per game in the last ten he has cracked 30 minutes, and Batum is one of the best bargains on the slate at only $4,300.
Other Options: Dillon Brooks ($6,400), Marcus Morris ($4,600)
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards, $7,800
Harris was dominating the Wizards to begin with, and now his role is going to reach new heights with Embiid injured. With the center only available for 11 minutes Monday night, Harris posted 47.75 DKFP in Game 4 with a 29.2% usage rate. When Embiid has been off the court this season, Harris’ usage has jumped a team-high 4.6 percentage points and he has produced 1.24 DKFP per minute.
Additionally, the Sixers are back at home tonight, where Harris has scored 4.0 more DKFP per game this season. With this game sporting the highest O/U game total on DraftKings Sportsbook, Harris is an extremely tough fade.
Other Options: Kyle Anderson ($6,400)
Royce O’Neale, Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $5,100
O’Neale has been the main beneficiary with Mitchell back in the lineup for the Jazz. Playing alongside the All-Star in these past three, O’Neale has amassed 28 DKFP per game, compared to the 18 DKFP per game the forward was averaging in his previous five.
O’Neale has knocked down three pointers at a 61% clip in the last three games, and he should continue to supply value as the Jazz look to close out the Grizzlies tonight.
Other Options: Rui Hachimura ($4,800), Danilo Gallinari ($4,400)
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $8,000
Gobert and the Jazz return to Utah tonight, where the center has produced 40 DKFP per game this season. Via DraftKings Sportsbook, Wednesday’s Game 5 presents a healthy 225 point O/U game total and the Jazz are tied with the Sixers for the highest implied team total on the board at 117.5 points.
In this strong situation, Gobert should get us over 40 DKFP and it is likely he comes with an ownership level under 20% in GPPs.
Other Options: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700)
Daniel Gafford, Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, $4,700
Monday night, Scott Brooks made the long overdue change to his starting five, moving Alex Len to the bench and starting Gafford. The center responded with 29 DKFP over 26 minutes in the Game 4 upset against the Sixers. This is the second most playing time Gafford has received since being acquired by Washington at the trade deadline, and the 22-year-old should approach the 30-minute mark with Davis Bertans on the shelf. The Wizards have no choice but to use a very tight rotation with the forward hurt, and Gafford also benefits greatly from not having to face Embiid. Not only is the center an elite defender, but matching up with Embiid always brings serious foul trouble risk.
All in all, Gafford is an elite value tonight and while he will be chalky, I think eating the chalk and differentiating yourself elsewhere is the best strategy.
Other Options: Maxi Kleber ($4,300), Dwight Howard ($4,300), Robin Lopez ($3,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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