June started yesterday so that mean’s today is June 2. Nice.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Walker Buehler, $9,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+200)— Like last night, Wednesday isn’t exactly filled with premium pitching options. I mean, when Jon Lester ($9,100) is rounding out the top five most expensive options, something is wrong. Thus, Buehler sticks out immensely as a -190 favorite against the Cardinals. This is his first time pitching against them this season and he’ll be coming off a six inning performance against the Giants where he allowed two run (one earned) on three hits with only three strikeouts. It wasn’t his most dominant performance, but he’s now allowed no more than two runs in four of his last five starts.
The Cardinals rank 27th against the fastball, which is what Buehler throws 59% of the time. After that, he mixes in a slider, cutter and a curveball. Aside from the slider, the Cardinals one again rank near the bottom of the league. Essentially, this looks like a strong spot for Buehler, although I would argue it may not be a good one for his strikeout totals. The Cardinals don’t strikeout much and only have a 23.1% K%, which is 22nd.
Other notable favorite: Sean Manaea ($9,600; -157) vs. Seattle Mariners
Highest Projected Total
Texas Rangers (-104; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-112; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — These teams only combined for five runs last night, which is not very nice for anyone taking the over. Tonight, however, SHOULD be a different story. Jordan Lyles ($5,700) and Antonio Senzatela ($6,000) will be taking the mound for their respective teams. Both pitchers have not pitched well are and striking out less than a batter an inning, although Lyles is very close with an 8.3 K/9.
I personally like the Rangers in this one against Senzatela, He has a .350 wOBA with a 4.00 FIP against lefties and a .360 wOBA with a 5.58 FIP against righties. This Rangers team has some sneaky power (although I didn’t show much last night) and are averaging 4.1 runs per game on the road this season. Senzatela doesn’t go deep into games either, meaning the Rangers will likely be into the Rockies bullpen early. Senzatela has gone no more than five innings in seven of his 10 starts, allowing at least four runs in four of them.
Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays - This game will start without an issue but rain starts to pick up as the night rolls on. I don’t think I’d avoid this game but it’s worth taking a second look as we get closer to first pitch.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Drew Smyly, .399, 5.58
Randy Dobnak, .396, 8.16
Matt Harvey, .352, 5.91
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .138, 1.43
Sean Manaea, .213, 2.96
Carlos Martinez, .271, 3.30
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Lyles, .382, 5.41
Matt Harvey, .378, 3.09
Jon Lester, .377, 4.75
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .216, 2.88
Shance McClanahan .264, 3.26
Randy Dobnak, .270, 1.88
Pitcher to Build Around
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins, $8,200 — Second day in a row we’re targeting the Marlins again. It worked out great last night with Robbie Ray, who continues to get back in my good graces with a 28.7 DKFP performance last night. Now, we’ve only see Manoah once but he came out and shut down the Yankees through six innings, allowing no runs on two hits and seven strikeouts. He was getting them to swing-and-miss as well, inducing it at 11.3%. Tonight, he that strikeouts quite often with a 26.4% K% to go with a .287 wOBA, a .121 ISO and an 86 wRC+. These strikeouts from Manoah certainly feel sustainable, as he already posted a 13.5 K/9 through 18 innings in the minors before being called up. His salary nearly doubled from the last time he pitched but at just $8,200, he should be in your lineups against the Marlins.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, $4,500 — So it looks as if Matt Harvey ($5,200) is going to open this game, even after pitching three days ago. He’ll then hand it off to the Orioles bullpen for the remainder of the evening. This is all great news for the lefty Kirilloff. First and foremost, Harvey has allowed a .352 wOBA, a 5.91 FIP and five of the seven home runs he’s allowed to lefties. THEN we get the bullpen who have combined to post poor numbers against lefties themselves. The O’s bullpen has a 4.51 FIP, an 11.7% BB% and a 1.49 HR/9 against them this season. It seems as if no matter how you slice it, Kirilloff is in a great spot.
Save Big by Drafting
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, $3,300 — Talk about someone who is suddenly mashing the ball, Renfroe has come out of no where to post an average of 15.6 DKFP over his last five games. In that span he’s gone 10-for-17 with two home runs, six doubles and three RBI. What’s most impressive is that he’s hit a double in all five of those games, so until further notice, we can at least pencil him in for one. He gets Framber Valdez ($7,800), a lefty, which has always been the preferred split for Renfroe. Renfore has posted a .407 wOBA, a. 213 ISO and a 160 wRC+ against them this season.
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