The 120-invite only field is ready to take on Muirfield Village GC on Thursday. Seven of the top 10 are headlining the Memorial Tournament, but there’s a ton of DraftKings value this week with soft pricing.
Recent 2020 renovations may have the course looking different and potentially easier now, based on Nicklaus’ comments earlier this week about said changes. We’ll see if that’s true, but historically, Muirfield Village plays difficult. Since 2017, the average difficulty ranking in scoring relative to par is 14th, with last year playing as the second-hardest course. The weather plays a factor in how tough the course will play, and in turn, opens up who to consider rostering this week if the conditions are challenging. Make sure to check the forecast leading up to Thursday’s opening round.
With soft pricing, balanced lineups will most likely be the preferred construction. Similar to a Major, rostering stars and scrubs will probably be the contrarian build. A lot of the projected roster percentage is collecting in the $9,000-range, which means we could potentially get a couple of top-priced studs at single-digit roster percentage this week.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
Pivot: Justin Thomas ($10,200)
Like last week, Morikawa projects to be the highest rostered player in this range, and Thomas, one of the lowest. Morikawa finished with a top 15 at Colonial CC, which resulted in decent ROI for people who rostered him. JT, on the other hand, burned lineups, finishing 40th. Now, Thomas is $800 cheaper than he was last week and coming in with lower sentiment, even though he won THE PLAYERS just a few months ago. Thomas finished runner-up to Morikawa here last season at the first of two tournaments (Workday Charity Open) at Muirfield Village. Thomas ranks second to only Xander Schauffele ($9,700) in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Tony Finau ($9,200)
Pivot: Sungjae Im ($8,200)
Are people forgetting about Sungjae this week? Sure, he missed the cut last week, but before that, he finished 17th at the PGA Championship, 29th at the Valspar and eighth at the Honda Classic, all courses which correlate nicely to Memorial this week. There’s a ton of love for Tony this week, but he’s projecting to be the highest-rostered golfer. Sungjae’s two starts here read 57-MC, so we’re not relying on course history. Still, Sungjae is projected to be the lowest-rostered golfer in this entire range and ranks 18th in SG: Ball-striking over the previous 24 rounds.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Emiliano Grillo ($7,700)
Pivot: Aaron Wise ($7,000)
Chalk Grillo week worked out for rosters with an eighth-place last week from Emiliano, and it appears to be happening again here at Memorial. Grillo’s ball-striking has been fantastic over the last few weeks, but like any tournament, rostering golfers in the $7,000-range who project to be in a ton of rosters is extremely risky. Aaron Wise is coming in with a top 20 at the PGA Championship, a ninth at Wells Fargo and a top 15 at the Honda Classic. Wise’s putting is the part of his game holding him back from elite finishes. Still, some of his best putting performances on the PGA TOUR have come on bentgrass at the WGC-Bridgestone in 2018 (Firestone CC) and the 2017 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (TPC Summerlin).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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