Wednesday is as full a slate as we can get in the NBA Playoffs, with four Game 5’s on the agenda. The Jazz, Sixers and Hawks will look to close out, while the Clippers host the Mavericks in a 2-2 series in which we’ve seen the road team capture every game.
Harris’ point-prop is likely the one that’ll get the most attention with Joel Embiid out, but it’s too juiced to make a play on. Harris’ total is generally set in the 20-point range, and while he’s averaged 22.2 points in 19 games without Embiid, 25.5 is too much of a tax to pay, even in the playoffs. However, Embiid is averaging over 10 boards per game this season, and Philly will be sure to try out some small-ball in this one. Both Ben Simmons and Harris will not only have to step up as scorers, but on the glass. Harris is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game in this series, ripping down 13 in consecutive games.
This is it for the Knicks, and we’re going down with the ship. While the Hawks’ recent domination is fresh on everyone’s mind, we’re a Trae Young floater away from being tied 2-2, with the Knicks holding down home court in the series. But now, with their backs against the wall, the Knicks have a chance to prove they have a pulse in front of a packed Madison Square Garden. Sharp money has faded the Knicks all series, and after being a costly strategy all season, it’s worked in the postseason. I’ll give the Knicks one last shot in an elimination game at home, anticipating some adjustments. Julius Randle has been painfully awful in the series, but dominated Atlanta in the regular season. He did so by getting to the rim, not chucking up jumpers. I’m counting on a far more aggressive Randle in Game 5.
The Clippers were completely dead in the water, losing both home games in this series to fall down 2-0 to the Mavericks. But the home team has still yet to collect a win in the series, which the Clippers will try to do in Game 5. Adjustments were expected in Game 2, and we didn’t get them. But a flip was switched the next two games, and with Luka Doncic dealing with a neck injury, I think that momentum comes back home for the Clips.
If you do like Los Angeles to win the next two games, the +110 here is good value. The Clips are 7.5-point home favorites on Wednesday, and being priced at +110 to win the next game would imply they are around 2-point favorites in Dallas for Game 6. But Los Angeles closed as a 3.5-point favorite in Game 4, and generally the better team going for the closeout means we’ll see an inflated spread. Bottom line is that +110 is a good price on a Clippers/Clippers two-game moneyline parlay if you believe in them.
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