Monday features a six-game main MLB slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
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Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers ($9,400) – This is a strange slate. The pitching is not great, but it’s not awful either. Montas could be great or he could implode, but on this slate, he’s the least likely to fall apart. His matchup against Texas is the softest on Monday night’s slate. Texas has an 89 wRC+, .298 wOBA, .146 ISO and, best of all, they strike out at a 26% clip against right-handed pitching. Montas has a 24% K rate, and that number jumps to 31% against left-handed batters – half of Texas’ lineup are lefties. When Montas is not striking out Rangers, he can rely on his split-finger (.191 xwOBA). Texas ranks 28th against the split-finger this season.
Other Option: Tyler Mahle ($9,800)
Brett Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks ($6,500) – If it’s a tough slate for pitching, then it’s a terrible slate for value pitching. Kyle Gibson ($6,300) has pitched well, but he’s facing a red hot Oakland team. Normally, Baltimore would be a good matchup to attack, but they’re hot and having their way with right-handed pitching. That leaves Brett Anderson. Arizona is an above-average team against left-handed pitching (101 wRC+, .319 wOBA, .184 ISO). Their 36% hard contact rate is worrisome, but this team struggles at home. Arizona’s Chase Field ranks as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in terms of home runs, and the Diamondbacks have hit the fourth-fewest home runs at home. That’s good news for Anderson (1.4 HR/9 and a 39% hard contact rate). It’s not a perfect spot, but Anderson just tossed seven scoreless innings against the Reds. He struck out nine and allowed one hit.
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Omar Narváez, Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,400) – Merrill Kelly ($7,400) has struggled more with right-handed batters (.353 wOBA and a .221 ISO) than left-handed batters (.311 wOBA and a .148 ISO), but he’s allowing more hard contact (37%) and earning fewer strikeouts (19%) against left-handed batters. His 4.43 xFIP to left-handed batter hints at his coming regression. Narvaez has a .398 wOBA, .194 ISO and a 154 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Will Smith ($4,500)
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins ($3,700) – J.A. Happ ($5,300) is the worst pitcher on the slate (5.62 xFIP). He is getting eaten alive by right-handed batters (.375 wOBA, .258 ISO, 36% hard contact, 50% fly-ball rate, 1.80 HR/9). Stack the Reds and start with Stephenson (vs. LHP – .402 wOBA, .318 ISO, 154 wRC+, 44% hard contact).
Other Option: Sean Murphy ($3,900)
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Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians ($5,000) – Over the last week, Rizzo’s surface numbers do not look great (.239 wOBA), but he does have two home runs and his hard contact rate is 57.9%. According to Statcast, he has four Barrels and 13 hard hits, but just four real-life hits to show for it. Aaron Civale ($8,500) is allowing a 33% hard contact rate and 1.7 HR/9 to left-handed batters. It’s likely that Rizzo hammers another ball tonight, but will he get the result he deserves?
Other Option: Matt Olson ($5,700)
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs ($3,500) – Adbert Alzolay ($8,900) is scheduled to return from the IL on Monday night. He’s been great against right-handed batters (3.15 xFIP), but he has struggled mightily in 26 innings against left-handed batters (.336 wOBA, .273 ISO, 38% hard contact, 2.4 HR/9). Naylor, a former first-round pick, has struggled to establish himself in his first two seasons in the Majors, but he’s been competent against right-handed pitching (.323 wOBA, .158 ISO, 103 wRC+, 35% hard contact, 16% K rate). On a full slate, Naylor would be out of the question. On a small slate, where DFS players will likely have to pay up for both pitchers, Naylor is in the player pool.
Other Option: Asdrúbal Cabrera ($3,400)
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles ($5,500) – It’s going to be difficult to afford studs due to the lack of value at pitching, but Altuve is worth the cost of punting at another position. He leads the league with nine home runs in June and has a .431 wOBA and a .412 ISO. Camden Yards ranks as the second-best park for home runs.
Other Option: Jonathan India ($5,000)
Luis Urías, Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,300) – Against right-handed pitching, Urias has a little bit of power (.193 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate). Against right-handed batters, Kelly has given up a lot of power (.353 wOBA, .221 ISO, 36% hard contact, 2.0 HR/9). In the month of June, Urias has a .402 wOBA and a .259 ISO.
Other Option: Tony Kemp ($3,100)
José Ramírez, Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs ($5,800) – He is day to day with a sore foot, but manager Terry Francoa insists that he’s just a little sore and will be fine. Monitor Cleveland’s lineups before lock because a matchup against Alzolay is one of the best on the slate. Ramírez crushes right-handed pitching (.381 wOBA, .329 ISO, 142 wRC+, 41% hard contact) and Alzolay struggles with left-handed batters (4.14 xFIP).
EDITOR’S NOTE: José Ramírez is in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Cubs.
Other Option: Matt Chapman ($4,700)
Eduardo Escobar, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($4,400) – Arizona has the sixth-worst offense (87 wRC+), but they’re just above the league average against left-handed pitching. Escobar is one of the Diamondbacks' best hitters against left-handed pitching (.359 wOBA, .258 ISO, 127 wRC+, 42% hard contact). Other than Brett Anderson’s last start, he’s been a pitcher that DFS players could target with right-handed batters (.341 wOBA, 42% hard contact, 1.2 HR/9 and a 14% K rate.)
Other Option: Patrick Wisdom ($4,100)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles ($4,800) – Keegan Akin ($5,100) was a ticking time bomb. The rookie’s numbers were decent up until June (3.60 ERA), but he’s allowed over a .400 wOBA in his last two starts and eight earned runs against Cleveland last week. He doesn’t strike out right-handed batters (17%) and he’s allowing a lot of fly balls (44%). That doesn’t work in the big leagues and that’s a recipe for disaster in Baltimore. Correa has a .388 wOBA and a 153 wRC+ against left-hand pitching.
Other Option: Javier Baéz ($4,400)
Sergio Alcántara, Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians ($2,500) – In 20 games at Iowa, Alcántara had a .425 wOBA. In 21 games with the big club, he has a .349 wOBA. Against right-handed pitching, he has been particularly adept in the small sample (.390 wOBA, .355 ISO, 150 wRC+, 42% hard contact). There could also be a strong wind blowing in at Wrigley, and that could deter DFS players from spending up in this game, but at Alcántara’s price point, the wind shouldn’t matter too much.
Other Option: Freddy Galvis ($3,600), Elvis Andrus ($3,200)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds ($4,800) – Before his lengthy stint on the IL, Buxton was the best hitter in baseball (.493 wOBA, .402 ISO, 218 wRC+). He’s picked up where he left off. In his second game back, he homered and doubled yesterday. Mahle is a good pitcher with a solid fastball, but Minnesota is the best fastball hitting team in the league (0.97 wFB/C – the average amount of runs produced per 100 fastballs) and Buxton is the best fastball hitter in the league (5.90 wFB/C).
Other Option: Ketel Marte ($4,900)
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros ($4,100) – Jake Odorizzi ($5,900) may end up being popular on the slate. His results have been mixed against right-handed batters (.268 wOBA, .203 ISO, 28% hard contact, 1.8 HR/9), and for most of the season, Baltimore has been a team to target. However, that’s not the case anymore — Baltimore’s 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in June ranks as the seventh-best. Mountcastle has a .524 wOBA and a .426 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. He had a three home run game on Saturday.
Other Option: Alex Kirilloff ($3,700)
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