It’s my favorite day of the week (for baseball purposes, not in general. Who likes Tuesday normally?) as almost every team will be playing on the main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap from a daily fantasy and betting perspectives.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole, $11,000, New York Yankees (-275) vs. Kansas City Royals (+245) — Plenty of eyes have been on Cole during this substance enforcement put forth by MLB. Cole has famously been quoted numerous times about his disdain for this change and thus, all eyes have been on him lately. He’s coming off a poor start against the Blue Jays in which he only struck out four through eight innings despite allowing just two runs on four hits. His 5.79 FIP was vastly different from his 2.25 ERA, meaning the results could have been much worse. While the Blue Jays can be a tough team to strikeout, Cole had 16 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings in two starts prior this season. Interesting timing but I’m not judging (yet).
It’ll be interesting to see how this start plays out against the Royals, who are tied with the Blue Jays with a 22.1% K% against righties. That ranks them 26th in the league so we could expect another low strikeout output from Cole. Their offensive numbers are nothing special with a .305 wOBA, a .145 ISO and a 92 wRC+. Personally, I can’t back Cole at this juiced line, especially with the Yankees going only 8-6 in games that Cole starts. The Yankees are also only 18-16 as home favorites this season, which is fine but surprisingly low, in my opinion.
Other notable favorite: Zack Greinke ($9,000; -195) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Highest Projected Total
Houston Astros (-195; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+163; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — The Astros were big favorites last night and easily beat the Orioles by a score of 10-2. They are the second biggest favorites tonight and also have the highest game total at 9.5. The Astros have the second best record with the over in the league at 44-26-2, covering just under 63% of the time. As the away team, they’re 20-11-2, covering 64.5% of the time.
I like the full game over in this one but I wanted to point out the Orioles total at 3.5. I simply have zero faith in Zack Greinke ($9,000). Especially lately, he’s been getting very lucky on the mound according to his FIP. In his complete game against the Blue Jays, his 4.28 FIP was a big jump from his 1.00 ERA. Before that, eight innings against the Padres, a 1.13 ERA but a 4.16 FIP. I’m not going out of my way to say the Orioles will be the team to expose him but the red flags are here. A 3.5 run total is appealing and the over is getting some love with a -127 line. The Orioles are averaging exactly four runs over the past five games, putting them right at that number we need them at. It’s an interesting way to attack this game if you’re looking to take an over on a low total.
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .415, 6.07
Tarik Skubal, .372, 3.16
Johan Oviedo, .367, 5.88
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .159, 1.53
Tyler Anderson, .216, 3.37
Marcus Stroman, .242, 3.25
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Freeland, .492, 8.97
Ross Stripling, .364, 5.11
Jorge Lopez, .362, 6.35
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .199, 2.75
Freddy Peralta, .207, 1.61
Gerrit Cole, .225, 2.39
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs.Washington Nationals, $10,200 — Wheeler is simply mowing opposing teams down and people aren’t noticing, it seems. He hasn’t allowed a run in over 17 straight innings, which includes two starts against the Braves and Dodgers. Now he’ll face the Nationals for the third time this season, a team he’s held to four runs on 13 hits with 15 strikeouts through 13 1/3 innings. His overall numbers against the Nationals are solid as well with a .288 wOBA, a 2.56 FIP and a 26.3% hard-hit rate. I’m locking Wheeler in as my SP1 tonight.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, $4,900 — I will be getting at least a piece of this game with the highest projected total. Alvarez continues to mash the ball and is an extra base machine, with 27 of his 70 hits going for at least two bags or better. Tonight, he faces Jorge Lopez ($4,500) who is a big fan of giving up extra base hits!. At home, Lopez has posted some atrocious numbers with a .366 wOBA, a 5.25 FIP and six of the 13 home runs he’s allowed. He’s also in the midst of his worst month of the season, tossing 14 innings ans allowing 13 runs on 19 hits with a .426 wOBA and a 6.52 FIP. Alvarez in the heart of this Astros lineup is a no-brainer.
Save Big by Drafting
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,200 — Vaughn has been a bit inconsistent at the plate but I’m usually putting him in my lineup when he goes against a lefty. His numbers against them are extremely good, boasting a .486 wOBA, .387 ISO, a 216 wRC+ and five of his six home runs. Tonight, he faces off against Tyler Anderson ($8,000) who has allowed a .361 wOBA, a 4.92 FIP and 12 of the 13 home runs he’s allowed to righties.
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