Tuesday’s MLB slate is a large one, and there’s a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies:
Nationals ML (+110)
I can’t pass up the opportunity to grab one of the best pitchers in the league as an underdog. He’s been an underdog in just 56 starts since 2009, and most of those came during his tenure with the Tigers. He’s actually posted a losing record in those contests, but the plus-odds as an underdog still results in a positive return on investment overall.
Scherzer remains as good as ever in 2021. He’s pitched to a 2.21 ERA and 12.10 K/9 through his first 13 starts this season, and he should find plenty of success vs. the Phillies. They rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season, and they also own the 10th-highest strikeout rate in that split.
The Nationals also have a tough matchup – they’re taking on right-hander Zack Wheeler – but they’ve lit up right-handed pitching of late. They rank second in wRC+ in that split over the past seven days, so I like their odds against Wheeler more than the Phillies’ odds against Scherzer.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees:
Royals ML (+220)
This is a huge mismatch on paper. The Yankees have gotten off to a disappointing start this season, but they will have their ace on the mound in Gerrit Cole. Unfortunately, I’m not sure what kind of production we can expect from Cole moving forward.
Cole is arguably the poster boy for the “sticky stuff” movement. He used an enhanced spin rate to become one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he could be much more hittable with MLB cracking down on foreign substances. He racked up just four strikeouts over eight innings in his last outing, and while he limited the Blue Jays to just two runs scored, his 5.79 FIP suggests he could be due for regression.
This matchup vs. the Royals should also limit his strikeout upside. The Royals have posted the third-lowest strikeout rate in that split this season, which means there should be a lot of balls in play against Cole. Anything can happen once the ball is in play, so getting better than 2-to-1 in this matchup is appealing.
If you’re looking for less of a long shot, consider the under on Cole’s strikeout prop of 7.5 instead. You can still get +112 on that number, which also stands out as an elite bet.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres:
Padres ML (-106)
This matchup didn’t take long to blossom into the best rivalry in baseball. Not only are these two of the best teams in baseball, but they have some real vitriol for each other. The Dodgers won the first two games between these teams this season, but the Padres have won five of the past six matchups. That includes a victory last night behind six brilliant innings from Yu Darvish.
The Padres will send Blake Snell to the mound on Tuesday, and he’s clearly had a subpar start to his tenure with the squad. He’s pitched to a 5.72 ERA through his first 14 starts, but his 3.63 xFIP suggests he’s been pretty unlucky. He’s allowed a ton of homers, and batters have managed a .333 BABIP when they’ve managed to make contact. I’m expecting a bit of positive regression from him moving forward.
The Dodgers have one of the better offenses in the league, but they are much more potent against right-handers than left-handers. They have some potent left-handed bats in their lineup, and Mookie Betts is a righty who historically fares better against right-handed pitching, as well.
The Padres have had no trouble against southpaws this season — they rank fourth in wRC+ — so they should be able to score some runs vs. Clayton Kershaw.
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