The MLB schedule is divided evenly throughout the day and Wednesday night features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at what we’ll be targeting for tonight.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jose Urquidy, $8,100, Houston Astros (-205) at Baltimore Orioles (+170) — These two teams can’t stay out of the biggest total and overall favorites. The Astros are once again massive favorites with Urquidy taking the mound against Thomas Eshelman ($5,100) who is making just his second appearance of the season. Urquidy hasn’t been a big strikeout pitcher this season but his command has been excellent with just a 1.5 BB/9 in 12 starts. The Orioles are not a patient team to begin with and have just a 7.4% BB%, which is one of the lowest in the league. They also are a free swinging team and are just inside the top-10 in K% against righties at 25.3%.
It’s also worth noting that the Astros have won six of the last seven games that Urquidy has started, which included four straight during the month of May. The only loss came against the Blue Jays, when he was lit up for six runs on nine hits through just 4 1/3 innings. Aside from that, the Astros have been giving him plenty of run support, as they’ve averaged 8.1 runs over the last six games they’ve won with him on the mound.
Other notable favorite: Michael King ($7,00; -175) vs. Kansas City Royals
Highest Projected Total
Kansas City Royals (+150; 4.5 runs) at New York Yankees (-175; 5.5 runs) 10 runs — Certainly a good chance of some crooked numbers tonight in the Bronx. Michael King ($7,100) and the Yankees are the second-biggest favorite on the slate taking on Danny Duffy ($8,500) who is expected to return off the IL and be on a limited pitch count although the number is undisclosed. The Royals have found plenty of success hitting the over with a 35-32-4 record while the Yankees are only at 31-40-1, which is one of the worst in the league at 43.7%.
Duffy didn’t end up making a rehab start and instead had some throwing sessions. With that being the case, I can’t imagine he’s going very deep in this game. With that in mind, it’s better to focus on the Royals bullpen numbers as of late, as they should be going to them early. They’ve logged 24 2/3 innings over the last week and posted a 5.63 FIP, only a 6.4 K/9 (yikes) and a 5.7 BB/9. With them performing as poorly as they’ve been, I feel better about taking the over in this game. King isn’t exactly a pitcher to fear either, as he’s been anything but a shut down starter. This game total has gone up a bit as it was at 9.5 early this morning but has moved up to 10. I would be looking at the over in this one.
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Weather Notes
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .451, 8.13
James Kaprielian, .373, 6.43
Garrett Richards, .340, 4.01
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy, .227, 3.05
Rich Hill, .239, 2.84
Joe Musgrove, .273, 3.67
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Garrett Richards, .358, 4.04
Robbie Ray, .326, 4.45
Jose Urquidy, .322, 4.73
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
James Kaprielian, .203, 2.68
Joe Musgrove, .210, 2.43
Trevor Bauer, .212, 3.00
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, $9,200 — I think we get a pitching duel tonight in Miami with Ray going up against Trevor Rogers ($9,800). Of the pitchers going on this slate, I think Ray has the best chance to get us 3X fantasy value. The strikeout upside is immense against the Marlins, who sport a 28.1% K% against lefties, which is the third-highest in the league. The overall offensive production from them is also nothing impressive with a .289 wOBA, a .142 ISO and an 87 wRC+. While we have to worry about home runs when rostering Ray, no one on the Marlins has really hit lefties for power, as Adam Duvall ($3,800) currently leads the team with four home runs against lefties. Doubles? Forget about it. Miguel Rojas ($3,500) has five to lead against lefties. This is not a lineup to fear, folks.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, $5,500 — I’m all about anyone with an A’s uniform tonight who bats from the left side of the plate. I would implore you to target these bats tonight when they face Mike Foltynewicz ($5,500) and his putrid numbers against them. On the season, Folty has posted a .451 wOBA (!) an 8.13 FIP (!!) and nine of the 17 (!!!) home runs he’s allowed. He can’t strike these batters out either, as his 12.8% K% indicates. So I will happily start my lineup with Olson, who has a .291 ISO against righties overall and has a 15.3 DKFP average over his last 10 games.
Save Big by Drafting
Ryan O’Hearn, Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, $2,000 — This is a pure salary based play. O’Hearn just returned to the Royals lineup and was inserted into the cleanup spot, posting 21 DKFP by going 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and two runs scored. If he’s going to be hitting cleanup, I absolutely want to grab him at the stone minimum in the highest projected scoring game of the night. While he doesn’t have overall numbers you drool over, he does have a career .222 ISO against right-handed pitching. If all he does is double and score, you’re already over 3X value on him.
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