While we’ve been enjoying a couple of exciting games to begin the Western Conference Finals, things were a bit delayed in the Eastern Conference, as both the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks pulled off massive Game 7 victories on the road to advance. I think this is a tough series to bet with the Bucks so heavily favored, and yet the Hawks continue to play out of their mind. So I’ll be looking to props in the early going.
Capela’s rebounding was down in the series against Philly, only cashing the over on this number in two of the seven games. However, that was to be expected with the task of guarding Joel Embiid for big minutes.
This is still a very active rebounder in less brutal matchups, and matching minutes with Brook Lopez is a much more favorable situation. Capela averages 14 boards per game, and that number jumped to 15 per game in two regular season meetings against Milwaukee — he cashed the over in each game individually with 16 and 14 in those games. Capela averaged 13.4 rebounds in the first round against the Knicks, finishing with no fewer than 12 in any of the five games. I expect to see that player in this series.
The Bucks have crept all the way up to -385 favorites on the moneyline in this game, and could close in the -400 neighborhood. Simply put, I consider this one way to cut that moneyline price in half.
Giannis has posted a double-double in all 11 of Milwaukee’s playoff games, including one triple-double against Miami. It’s tough to see that streak coming to an end in this matchup. And as for the Bucks getting the win, I do think the Hawks are in over their heads at this point. While they deserve all the credit for getting to this point, this is going to be a difficult matchup.
The Bucks are riding a 13-game winning streak at home into this game, and Atlanta has fallen short in its last seven trips to Milwaukee. I like the Bucks to get off to a 1-0 lead with a standard performance from Giannis.
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