Eight games on the schedule tonight starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We will talk about them. Nice.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Walker Buehler, $11,500, Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) vs. Chicago Cubs (+205) — After being swept by the Padres, the Dodgers will look to get back on track against the Cubs at home. Buehler will face this club for the second time this season, allowing two runs on five hits and eight strikeouts through six innings. The Cubs offense continues to struggle immensely at the plate, averaging just 2.4 runs over the last five games. Thankfully they scored seven last night, as they entered the game averaging 1.4 runs in the prior five games to that. I’m certainly not convinced they’re out of the slump just yet as collectively in the month of June, have hit just .185/.248/.381 with a .273 wOBA and a .196 ISO. They also rank 29th in runs scored and and second in K% at 28%.
As road underdogs, the Cubs are are only 7-16 on the moneyline (+205) but 13-10 on the run line (-103). As for the Dodgers, they’re 23-12 on the moneyline as home favorites and 19-16 on the run line (-120).
Other notable favorite: Luis Garcia ($8,700; -215) vs. Detroit Tigers
Highest Projected Total
Baltimore Orioles (+155; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-186; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — A massive, massive total tonight in Buffalo, New York between the Orioles and Blue Jays. 11 runs is usually saved for games at Coors Field but the East Coast is apparently going to see some of that action tonight with Dean Kremer ($6,500) taking on Anthony Kay ($4,000). While neither team is crushing the over on the season with Baltimore at 51.4% and the Blue Jays at 47.1%, I think we can safely assume they’ll be a hell of a lot of offense tonight.
The Blue Jays are expected to take this one with the team total set at 5.5 and the -186 moneyline. I’m a bit surprised by that as Kay has struggled at both the minor and major league levels. He has very high strikeout upside but reminds of me the “old” Robbie Ray, who will strikeout 12 and give up six runs though five innings. When he’s been up in the majors, he’s posted a 5.92 FIP, a 2.14 HR/9 and a 9.8 K/9. He’s also made four starts, for a total of 15 1/3 innings nad has given up 10 ER on 15 hits. So for me, I would take a chance on the over 4.5 runs for the Orioles, as I think this could have been at 5.5.
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Berrios, .391, 4.80
Jose Urena, .381, 5.34
Chad Kuhl, .380, 6.39
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Cody Poteet, .262, 4.78
Walker Buehler, .278, 4.06
Zach Davies, .300, 4.58
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dean Kremer, .380, 6.05
Zach Davies, .355, 4.67
Carlos Martinez, .342, 5.30
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Berrios, .214, 2.66
Walker Buehler, .224, 3.01
Joe Ross, .292, 4.75
Pitcher to Build Around
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, $8,700 —It seems kind of crazy that Garcia is only the fifth-most expensive starter on this slate with the strikeout upside he has in this matchup. Aside from Buehler, this matchup is probably the best you can find to rack up strikeouts. While the Tigers have been hitting better as of late, Garcia faced them once already and struck out seven through 4 1⁄3 innings, giving up 22 DKFP. Imagine what he could potentially do if he went six innings? This is not going to be a sneaky play by any means but I’m absolutely rolling with the guy with a K/9 over 10 at just $8,700 against a team with a league-leading 26.3% K% against righties.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, $5,000 — Mancini has been smashing lefties this season, so drawing the matchup against Kay looks awfully enticing. On the season, Mancini is averaging 8.4 DKFP overall but 11.8 DKFP against lefties. How is he doing it? With a .414 wOBA, a .322 ISO and 12 of his 26 hits against them going for extra bases. With this game total being as high as it is, I absolutely want a piece of this game and Mancini in the plus matchup caught my eye. His numbers against lefties on the road are just as good with a .401 wOBA, a .231 ISO and a 157 wRC+.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, $4,200 — This doesn’t classify as your normal “value” play but with how well he’s hitting the ball, I had to write him up. Since returning to the lineup earlier this month, Brantley has a .549 wOBA, a .218 ISO, 7 doubles a triple, home run and 15 RBI in 14 games. That’s absolutely madness. Tonight he faces Jose Urena ($5,100) who hasn’t throw more than 5 1⁄3 innings in four straight games and has been getting lit up by lefties. His .381 wOBA, a 5.34 FIP and just a 9.3%. K% says it all and Brantley at $4,200 is too cheap to ignore.
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