This weekend’s Red Sox-Yankees action kicks off on Friday. There is a bet from that game I like on DraftKings Sportsbook, but there’s another contest I’m a little more interested in.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Chris Paddack over 5.5 strikeouts -140
This matchup is the perfect storm — from both a DFS and betting perspective. Paddack is rolling, and Arizona isn’t doing anything to remove its unofficial “Doormat of the NL West” title.
Throughout the course of their recent struggles, the Diamondbacks are getting picked on relentlessly by right-handed pitchers. Arizona’s lineup has the second-lowest OPS against right-handers over the last two weeks and the worst ISO — which happens to be the only team ISO against righties below .100. Without even getting into their strikeout numbers, Paddack should have a lengthy start, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get six-plus punchouts.
But, it shouldn’t take Paddack six or seven innings to K six Diamondbacks. They have the seventh-worst plate appearances per strikeout rate against right-handers over the last two weeks. As much as he’ll take the extra help, Paddack doesn’t necessarily need it. He just punched out 11 vs. the Reds, and they’re in the middle of the pack in plate appearances per strikeout rate against right-handers over the last two weeks. Just before Cincinnati, the San Diego righty punched out six-plus in back-to-back outings vs. the Mets (six on June 6 and nine on June 13). The Mets have been striking out a fair amount against righties (not as much as Arizona), but it’s not often starters put together back-to-back strong outings when they have to face the same opponent in consecutive starts.
Padres over 5.5 runs +100
Corbin Martin is set to open vs. San Diego, so he may only go two innings. As much as the Padres would like to see as much of the righty as possible, they will happily welcome any Diamondbacks reliever to the mound.
Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst WHIP (1.55), third-worst ERA (5.75), fourth-worst FIP (5.07) and ninth-worst HR/9 (1.36) this month. Believe it or not, all of those stats get worse when you condense the time frame down to the last two weeks. So yeah, Diamondbacks relievers have not been good.
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Martin Perez over 5.5 hits allowed -120
Perez may luck out and not have to face one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in baseball over the last two weeks in Gio Urshela (day-to-day - shin), but he’ll still have to deal with a Yankees lineup that’s demolishing lefties right now. The Yankees have the fifth-best OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks. More importantly, they have the best ISO of any team during that stretch.
While Perez is coming off a good outing vs. the Royals, he gave up six hits in each of the three preceding outings. He’s faced some teams that are tough on left-handers of late, but the combination of New York’s form and the offensive nature of Red Sox-Yankees will be too much for Perez to overcome.
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