Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for any potential updates, as things can always change with potential lineup moves leading up to tipoff. Here’s what jumps out to me for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
MIL 1Q -3 (-112)
The Hawks have pretty much put my brain into a pretzel at this point. Are they really this good? The numbers say they are. Or is the dreadful coaching they’ve been going against allowing them to battle back and win these games? It’s probably a combination of both, but the Bucks’ coaching issues make them nearly impossible to back for the game. I certainly lean to Atlanta with the points, but I might look to make that play on the live line after the first or second quarter.
Milwaukee was a strong first quarter team at home this season, and should come out with high energy in a must-win game. The Bucks are coming off a loss and playing at home, a specific spot they’ve been in twice during this postseason (Games 3 and 6 against the Nets). Milwaukee won the first quarters by 19 and seven points in those games.
As for the Hawks, they’ve been an awful shooting team in the first quarter during the playoffs, but we know they’ve finished strong. I liken this spot much to Game 2 of the last round versus the 76ers. Atlanta got the upset win in Game 1, and then Philly won the first quarter of Game 2 by 13 points — the Hawks eventually came back, but the 76ers dominated the fourth quarter. Bucks big early, then we can’t trust them.
Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 16.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-122)
I think this is the strongest play for Friday’s NBA card, and worth a multi-unit play. Love the player when he’s healthy, but Bogi clearly isn’t that right now. This number is set significantly lower than his season averages, but is much too high for the player we’ve seen since suffering a knee injury.
In nine playoff games prior to the injury, Bogdanovic was averaging 37.3 minutes per game. The last four games with his knee wrapped up, Bogi is down to just 24.5 minutes, and a shell of himself on the floor. During that span, he’s shooting just 9-for-34 from the field, including 1-of-16 from deep (worth checking out U2.5 3-pointers if you don’t mind the juice).
His lift just isn’t there, and it’s resulted in averages of 5.25 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists in his last four. Frankly, he hasn’t come close to touching this 16.5 number, finishing with P/R/A totals of 10, 10, 8, 9.
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