Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Cubs vs. Dodgers Showdown on June 27

Sunday Night Showdown slates have been all about pitching this season. Lackluster pitchers have stepped onto the primetime stage and have silenced offenses. Tonight, a future Hall of Famer takes the stage, so expectations are high. Clayton Kershaw ($15,900 CP; $10,600) is having one of the best seasons of his career and he looks to continue his rejuvenation on Sunday night against the Cubs.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Captain’s Picks

Clayton Kershaw ($15,900 CP) — In his 14-year career, Kershaw has never had a swinging strike rate this high (15.5%) and a contact rate this low (68.6%). Why all of the sudden are his pitches so evasive? It appears that the answer is his slider. He has increased his slider usage from 40.2% to 47.1% and the swinging strike rate has risen from 22.2% to 26%. Nothing has fundamentally changed with the pitch, but nonetheless his slider’s whiff% (swings and misses divided by swings) is 41.9% — its highest mark in the past four seasons. The biggest difference is that his slider is working on right-handed batters (27.4 SwStr% and 43.4 Whiff% — both significant increases from last season). The Cubs are a good hitting team against the slider (fourth-best) and they scored four earned runs on Kershaw in one inning on May 4, but it wasn’t his slider’s fault — two of the three outs that he recorded were strikeouts via the slider. In that game, his velocity was at a season low and he gave up two singles and two doubles. Dave Roberts, no stranger to a quick hook, decided to pull Kershaw and let the veteran rest. That game is still a concern, but more so for the Cubs because Kershaw was embarrassed by his performance as it was one of the shortest of his career. He’ll likely want revenge on Sunday night.

Max Muncy ($15,300 CP) — He returned from the IL on June 22, and he’s recorded three doubles and a home run in his first five games back. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .394 wOBA, .270 ISO and 156 wRC+. Adbert Alzolay ($15,000 CP; $10,000) is allowing a .343 wOBA, .303 ISO and 2.8 HR/9 to left-handed batters. In his first start since returning from the IL, Alzolay allowed two home runs to left-handed batters. The Cubs righty is a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/sinker and slider), and those two pitches have limited right-handed batters to a .251 wOBA, but they’re not working against lefties. His slider has been fine, but his fastball allows a .527 wOBA and his indistinguishable sinker allows a .420 wOBA. This season, Muncy has a .567 wOBA against right-handed fastballs and a .415 wOBA against sinkers.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $50K Sunday Night Showdown [$10K to 1st] (CHC vs LAD)

Value Plays

Zach McKinstry ($6,600) — There’s not much of a choice between attacking Kershaw or Alzolay. The next step on the Sunday Showdown slate flow chart is “how to attack Alzolay?” The answer is left-handed batters. Follow the flow chart to the side with the left-handed Dodgers. Now, look for the cheap ones. McKinstry’s .315 wOBA against right-handed pitching is nothing to get excited about, but he does have some power (.216 ISO). Unfortunately, those numbers are buoyed by a solid April. However, there is a reason to play McKinstry other than the lefty-righty matchup and his price. Against right-handed pitchers, McKinstry has a .393 wOBA vs. fastballs and a .873 wOBA against sinkers (not a typo). He’ll likely struggle with Alzolay’s slider, but he should be able to attack everything else.

Patrick Wisdom ($6,400) — He has cooled off over the past two weeks (.306 wOBA and a .222 ISO), and he’s still striking out at an alarming rate. There is a reason why Wisdom is on his fourth team in as many years. His salary accurately reflects his performance, but it does not capture his potential as a power hitter. Against left-handed pitching this month, Wisdom has a 50% hard contact rate and a 50% fly-ball rate. Kershaw has been nasty this season and he should strike out Wisdom at least once, but if Wisdom can put the bat on the ball he has a good shot at hitting a home run. Kershaw is allowing 36% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 to right-handed batters.

Fades

Adbert Alzolay ($15,000 CP; $10,000) - Worse pitchers have looked good on Sunday night. Are the offenses treating these Sunday night games like get-away days? If that’s the case, then that is a risky trend to get behind. The Dodgers can be a potent offense, and betting that they take the night off, is not very scientific or rational. Alzolay has been good this season (3.55 xFIP and a 27% K rate) mainly due to the addition of a slider that has transformed his career, but his fastball and sinker have been ineffective against left-handed batters. His 39% hard contact rate and 40% fly-ball rate to left-handed batters is very concerning at Dodger Stadium, one of the most home-run friendly parks for left-handed batters.

The Outcome

The Dodgers win their third-straight game and take the series behind the exceptional pitching of Kershaw. The pitchers for both sides live up to expectations, but in the end, Alzolay and the Cubs cannot shut down the Dodgers.

Final Score: Dodgers 4, Cubs 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $50K Sunday Night Showdown [$10K to 1st] (CHC vs LAD)

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