It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Are we really doing this again? We just mispriced the Astros against a lefty with Jake Odorizzi on the hill last week, and now we’ve got the same situation unfolding on Sunday.
Sure, Odorizzi hasn’t been Houston’s greatest starter and Skubal’s an enticing prospect, but the fact remains that the Astros mash southpaws of all varieties and should never be cheaper than -200. The Tigers deserve a lot of credit for what they’ve done in this series, but their starters simply won’t have the same kind of success from the left side. Houston is a ridiculous .291 against lefties this year and Skubal carries a .259 xBA into this start with a 5.32 xERA. He's been one of the easiest pitchers to hit in baseball, and the contact should really pile up here for the Astros. I’m taking a rare run-line bet.
This pitching matchup shows promise based only on name value, and when you peel back the surface layers and look at the underlying numbers it becomes significantly less interesting.
Zack Wheeler has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball, entering with a 2.36 ERA and 122 strikeouts, which ranks second in the National League. His .250 xwOBA is the third-best among all qualified starters, illustrating how infrequently he allows hard contact. Simply put, it’s hard to get baserunners against Wheeler, who strikes out hitters at a ridiculous rate.
The Mets have struggled to get baserunners against literally everyone, and have been the sixth-worst offense over the past two weeks judging by wRC+. It’s an elite pitcher going against a sluggish offense at plus money; you must take it. It helps that Marcus Stroman has been pedestrian this season and the Phillies are starting to hit.
This is a pitching matchup I would have been more excited about in April, and one I would have hammered the under on. The fact of the matter is, Zac Gallen is still trying to find his best stuff, and Yu Darvish may have lost his.
Darvish was tripped up by pitching at Coors Field two starts ago, but that’s not generally a park he struggles at. It’s fine, though, because he turned around and struck out 11 Dodgers in his next outing. What isn’t fine is that what those two starts have in common is a considerable drop in four-seam fastball spin rate. Darvish has always comfortably sat above 2500 RPMs, but is down close to 2400 RPMs over those two starts. It could be the crackdown on sticky stuff or a mild injury, but whatever the reason he’s not bringing his A+ stuff. That could be an issue against a Diamondbacks team that is 11th in wRC+ over the past week (that’s good for them!)
Gallen, on the other hand, has had massive issues with walks this season and will now be facing a team that’s as picky as anyone at the plate, and who’s also as hot as anyone. I think many runs will be scored here.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.