Nine games on the slate tonight with extremely hot weather across the board. Let’s take a look at what we can expect for Monday night.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Greinke, $9,800, Houston Astros (-305) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+245) — Greinke is not just the biggest favorite on this slate, he is by a long shot. The Orioles are really struggling to win games and are 2-8 over their last 10, which included a three-game sweep against this Astros team. When Greinke faced them at that series, he completely silenced their bats, holding them to just five hits and one run through 7 1⁄3 innings.
While Greinke isn’t much of a fantasy relevant pitcher at this point of his career (6.3 K/9 through 92 2/3 innings), he’s been doing more than enough from a betting standpoint. The Astros are 12-4 when Greinke takes the mound this season, including 6-2 at home. Ironically, Greinke has struggled more at home with a .349 wOBA and a 4.72 FIP. Nonetheless, this Orioles team is simply not hitting and are averaging just 2.4 runs over their last five games. If you want to pull this back even further, it’s only 3.3 runs over the last 10 games. The Astros are a sparkling 23-11 as home favorites this season while the Orioles sit at 12-26 as road underdogs.
Other notable favorite: Trevor Bauer ($10,900; -190) vs. San Francisco Giants
Highest Projected Total
Kansas City Royals (+123; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-150; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — Big total in this game but I think we have a very good shot at seeing the over hit. The Royals have seen a healthy amount of success with the over at 37-33-6 (53%) while the Red Sox are at 37-40-1 (48%). What catches my eye about this one is the lefty Danny Duffy ($8,800) against the Red Sox and a struggling Garrett Richards ($6,900).
Of the two team totals, I like the Royals to go over 4.5 runs (-118). In his last start against the Rays, Richards simply did not have a feel for his pitches. He wasn’t going to his slider at all (throws 26% of the time) and was using his curveball more (throws 15.3% of the time). The Rays were not fooled at all and tagged him for five runs (four earned) on three hits and four walks through 1 2/3 innings. I don’t know if Richards worked out whatever was going on since then, but his June numbers don’t exactly help either. He has a .433 wOBA, a 6.15 FIP, a 50% hard-hit rate (!) and a 1.6 HR/9. The Royals aren’t typically a good hitting ball club on the road but it’s hard to imagine Richards is going to shut this team down.
The Red Sox have also hit lefties extremely well which helps lead me to going over the 10.5 run total in this one. As mentioned though, of these choices I can make, the Royals going over the team total is the play for me.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox - The only real concern tonight will be in Chicago where light rain will be in the area. The heaviest of it clear by the time the game rolls around but the combination of a wet field and occasional rain after the fact could be a concern.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .394, 5.63
Dylan Bundy, .364, 5.54
Kenta Maeda, .358, 5.15
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Greinke, .225, 3.09
Paolo Espino, .248, 3.57
Lucas Giolito, .249, 3.12
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kenta Maeda, .371, 4.87
Garrett Richards, .369, 4.46
Dylan Bundy, .363, 5.04
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .196, 2.62
Freddy Peralta, .200, 1.50
Trevor Bauer, .214, 3.13
Pitcher to Build Around
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs, $10,700 — If it’s strikeout upside you seek, look no further than the second-most expensive pitcher on this slate. Peralta will be facing the Cubs for the FOURTH time already this season, which has spanned 15 innings thus far. In those games, he’s held them to just three runs on eight hits with 25 (!) strikeouts and seven walks. In all, Peralta has a .243 wOBA, a 2.08 FIP, and a 43.1% K% against this team. If it wasn’t for the walks, Peralta would be considered a straight up bully against the Cubs. The Brewers, as you’d imagine, are favorites in this one but only a -155 line. Kyle Hendricks ($9,100) has been pitching much, much better as of late so this also could be a game to consider the under.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, $5,000 — Ohtani gets a discount (what?!) of $700 in salary despite his monster game yesterday of 40 DKFP. Tonight he faces Michael King ($6,500) who against lefties has a .344 wOBA, a 5.55 FIP and a 1.35 HR/9. With the way Ohtani has been hitting, this feels like a no-brainer with the heavy discount. In what is projected to be one of the highest scoring games on the slate, Ohtani with his .429 wOBA, .380 ISO and 17 of the 25 home runs he’s hit on the season, he’ll be one of the anchor’s of my lineups.
Save Big by Drafting
Ryan O’Hearn, Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox, $2,900 — If you need a really cheap bat, O’Hearn batting cleanup for the Royals is where I’ll be looking. As mentioned earlier, going after Richards is what I’ll be doing both from a betting and daily fantasy standpoint. He has really poor numbers against lefties as well with a .353 wOBA, a 4.62 FIP and four of the eight home runs he’s allowed. All O’Hearn has done offensively is hit righties with a .320 wOBA, a .235 ISO and a 102 wRC+. If I’m liking the Royals to go over 4.5 runs tonight, I should probably grab one of the hitters in the heart of the lineup and O’Hearn gives you that on the cheap.
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