After losing the opening game of the series, the Milwaukee Bucks stormed back and dominated the next two games. Home court is now back in their pocket, and if they can win Game 4 in Atlanta, the Bucks can put a stranglehold on the series. It will be tough sledding for the Atlanta Hawks as the Bucks are the superior team, but things get more difficult since Trae Young injured his ankle in Game 4 and won’t be 100%. DraftKings Sportsbook has the visiting Bucks favored by seven points with the O/U at 218.5.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,000 CP) - Giannis has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He scores. He rebounds. He blocks shots. He pilfers. He dishes out assists. He leaps over tall buildings in a single bounce. Giannis does it all. The usage rate has been over 30% in two of the first three games and he’s shot 61%, 61%, and 56% from the field. He’s gone for 58.75, 48.75, and 70.5 DKFP in this series. He only played 29 minutes in that 48.75 DKFP performance due to a blowout. There’s risk of that happening again tonight but he will still be an integral reason for that scenario coming to fruition.
Kevin Huerter ($10,500 CP) - There’s a ton of volatility to Huerter’s game. He can easily shoot 30% from the field or over 50%. He can grab double-digit rebounds or only grab two. He can dish out seven assists or produce only one. He can score in the teens or go for over 40 DKFP. He is the anti-Giannis in that his floor is low. The usage rate is also usually in the teens but there have been moments when it has spiked to over 25%. Tonight may be one of those games as Trae Young is hobbled with an ankle injury. Huerter has shown flashes of being a competent initiator of the offense and can navigate pick-and-roll action well. In the last two games of the Philadelphia series, he went for 27 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and one steal in one game and 17 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, one steal, and one block in the other. That was good for 42.75 and 43.25 DKFP.
Bobby Portis ($4,400) - The Nets rendered Portis unplayable. The Hawks haven’t figured out how to take advantage of him yet so we roll with him until new information is presented. On the season, Portis averages 1.16 DKFP per minute. He’s been the first big man off the bench and he’s been an offensive spark, scoring 11, eight, and 15 points. He’s played 15, 18, and 17 minutes while attempting eight, seven, and 12 shots. He will grab some rebounds but he’s also contributed some blocks and steals in the last two games. Portis has contributed 22.6, 17.25, and 26 DKFP.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,800) - Gallinari played 36 minutes last game. He has the ability to stretch the floor and post up smaller defenders. He can be a vital offensive piece for the Hawks and could be needed if Young isn’t 100%. If his shot is off, then he can be a fantasy zero since he doesn’t contribute much outside of scoring but he did put up 37.75 DKFP during the Philadelphia series and was a fantasy hero.
Jrue Holiday ($9,400) - Khris Middleton ($10,000) was the other option here but ownership could be slightly elevated due to his 64.75 DKFP performance last game. In addition, Holiday shot 2-for-11 in that game so ownership could be decreased as well due to recency bias. Holiday has stuffed the stat sheet in each game this series and dished out 12, seven, and 10 assists. He went for 61.5 DKFP in Game 1 so the ceiling is not a glass one.
Trae Young ($16,200 CP; $10,800) - It’s always scary fading a player who garners a high usage rate, plays a ton of minutes, is a professional getter of buckets, and can be the highest scorer on the slate. That said, he won’t be 100% after tweaking his ankle in Game 3. The explosion to get around defenders to hoist his floaters may not be there and the legs to launch three-pointers may be compromised. As a result, the efficiency may be lacking as well as playmaking opportunities. This is not to say that Young won’t do anything because he will but it may be difficult to satisfy salary expectations.
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
I think the Bucks blow out the Hawks in this one. They are the better team and the Hawks are not at 100%. In addition, the Hawks have no answers for the Bucks’ offense. Milwaukee has traversed the staircases of the NBA Playoff Game of Death, so they have been through the trials and tribulations. They smell blood and are ready to face Kareem.
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