Wednesday features a nine-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles ($9,900) – Baltimore is hitting right-handed pitching a little better this month, but on the season the Orioles have an 82 wRC+, .288 wOBA, .148 ISO and a 25% K rate. Most of the positive production against right-handed pitching has come from two players: Cedric Mullins ($4,100) has a .472 wOBA and a 205 wRC+ and Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900) has a .492 wOBA and a 218 wRC+. Garcia has a 2.83 ERA, 27% K rate and two terrific pitches. Baltimore’s lineup will feature mainly right-handed bats, and right-handed batters have a .163 wOBA against Garcia’s cutter and a .184 wOBA against his slider. At home, Garcia’s ERA is two runs lower than on the road (1.96 home ERA). He could be Houston’s third Rookie of the Year in the last seven seasons.
Other Option: Aaron Nola ($10,200)
Kolby Allard, Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics ($7,300) – The value pitching options are rough. No one will dare roster Matt Harvey ($5,300), and Jordan Holloway ($4,400) couldn’t get batters out in his last three starts in the minors. The decent arms on this slate do not provide savings, and the value players will not provide fantasy points. Allard’s transition from bullpen to starter has gone fairly well – 5 innings per start, 3.43 ERA, 20.6% K rate and a 27% hard contact rate. This game will be at Oakland, so his 39% fly ball rate is less of a concern, and all of his pitches are grading well. For a value option, he checks a lot of boxes. He did experience a hiccup in his development in his last start, but it was nothing more than a rough first inning against the Athletics. This is an above average offense against left-handed pitching, but the Athletics have scuffled over the last month (99 wRC+, .307 wOBA and a .150 ISO).
Other Option: Bailey Ober ($5,700)
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Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins ($4,800) – Most DFS players only know Bailey Ober ($5,700) as a cheap punt that has worked a couple times this season, but his failure in his last start revealed some underlying issues. He has allowed a .529 wOBA, .333 ISO, 3.4 HR/9 and a 46% fly ball rate to the 43 left-handed batters that he has faced. The fly ball issue is not new, he had a 0.61 GO/AO in the minors. Grandal is poised to take advantage of this flaw: against right-handed pitching, he has .214 ISO and a 40% hard contact rate. Also, he’s on a hot streak – over his last six games he has a .465 wOBA, .350 ISO and a 201 wRC+.
Other Option: Salvador Perez ($5,200)
Tom Murphy, Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays ($3,100) – One of the tricks for finding value at catcher is to look for left-handed pitching matchups. Weak hitting catchers do not experience price hikes, but some of them hit lefties well. Against left-handed pitching, Murphy has a .229 ISO and a 49% hard contact rate. Steven Matz ($8,100) is having a good season, but he can be tagged by right-handed batters (4.29 xFIP and a .348 wOBA).
Other Option: Martín Maldonado ($2,800), Zack Collins ($2,400)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,900) – In his first two seasons, his ISO never cracked .200, but this season it’s at .341. Most of that damage has been done against right-handed pitching, but Justus Sheffield ($6,300) should boost his splits (.386 wOBA, 220 ISO, 39% hard contact and 1.9 HR/9 against right-handed batters). Against left-handed pitching, Vlad has a .395 wOBA, .164 ISO and a 151 wRC+. His low ISO is a concern, but DFS players can suspend that unease because Vlad has a .383 ISO over the last week.
Other Option: Pete Alonso ($5,200), Joey Votto ($4,700)
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals ($3,100) – Paying down at first base can be scary, but these days, it’s safer to pay down at the former power spot of first base than the current superstar position that is shortstop. Against left-handed pitching, Dalbec has a .357 wOBA, .286 ISO and a 123 wRC+. Mike Minor ($8,900) has allowed 1.5 HR/9 and a 41% fly ball rate to right-handed batters. It’s going to be another hot day in Boston and DraftKings Sportsbook is predicting that plenty of runs will be scored (O/U at 11 runs).
Other Option: Jared Walsh ($4,400)
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles ($5,800) – His .382 wOBA, .263 ISO and 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitching are all great, but DFS players take for granted his 16% K rate and the Astros’ low strikeout rate in general. In modern baseball, the strikeout is not a big deal, but in DFS, putting the ball in play increases the odds of longer innings. Which in turn leads to DFS stacks exploding. The Astros are facing a pitcher that is not striking out right-handed batters (18% K rate) and is allowing a lot of contact (82%). This does not bode well for Matt Harvey ($5,300), but then again, what matchup ever does for a pitcher that allows a .419 wOBA, .226 ISO and 1.7 HR/9 to right-handed batters?
Other Option: Jonathan India ($5,100)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies ($3,500) – There are much better pitchers to target than Aaron Nola ($10,200), but he has been susceptible to left-handed batters (.350 wOBA, .221 ISO, 43% hard contact rate and 1.8 HR/9). Chisholm has a .347 wOBA, .206 ISO and a 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Other Option: Kiké Hernández ($4,000)
Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers ($6,100) – This is a very steep price and it’s based on reputation. In 2019, Chapman established himself as an elite hitter against left-handed pitching (.279 ISO). This season he has a .342 wOBA, .214 ISO and a 122 wRC+ against lefties. His price seems a little high for the output, but that makes him an intriguing GPP play. Over the last week, he has a .340 wOBA, .231 ISO and a 121 wRC+.
Other Option: Manny Machado ($5,100)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets ($3,900) – He has a .351 wOBA and a .208 ISO over the last seven games. Against left-handed pitching, he has a .200 ISO. and tonight, he’s facing a volatile lefty. David Peterson ($7,500) is allowing 40% hard contact, 1.5 HR/9 and a 12% BB rate to right-handed batters. Simply put, he finds himself in hitters’ counts too often. Sometimes Peterson survives and other times he does not.
Other Option: Jon Berti ($3,200)
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds ($6,200) – Watching Tatis’ stats go up is like watching AMC and GME. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .462 wOBA, .420 ISO, 199 wRC+ and a 52% hard contact rate. These numbers play in any park, but tonight he’ll be in Cincinnati. It should be a green candle night for Tatis and the other right-handed Padres. Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,100) has allowed a .348 wOBA, .209 ISO, 46% hard contact and 1.6 HR/9 in 17 innings against right-handed batters.
Other Option: Carlos Correa ($5,300)
David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees ($2,700) – Fading Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200) in Cincinnati? It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for ‘em. David Fletcher is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s riding a 13-game hit streak. Over that span, he has a .456 wOBA, 194 wRC+ and an impressive 5.8% K rate. Fletcher is locked in, but good luck with the Tatis fade.
Other Option: Jorge Polanco ($4,300)
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets ($6,100) – Lat’s do the math. DFS players are probably paying up for both pitchers with the lack of value on this slate. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200) feels like a must play in Cincinnati, so how can DFS players get to Acuña? Figure it out. He has a .458 wOBA, .340 ISO and a 192 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and David Peterson ($7,500) is allowing a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed batters.
Other Option: Yordan Alvarez ($6,000), J.D. Martinez ($5,500)
Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners ($4,200) – If this game were in Dunedin, then Grichuk would be $5,000, but it’s not. Although he does get to enjoy the pleasures of a hitter’s park, he does get to face a hitter’s pitcher. As mentioned above, Justus Sheffield ($6,300) has struggled with right-handed batters all season, and Grichuk is having a great season against left-handed pitching – .372 wOBA, .257 ISO and a 135 wRC+.
Other Option: Kyle Tucker ($4,300), Joey Gallo ($3,800)
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