10 games taking place tonight starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We should chat about that. That’s why you’re here.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Luis Garcia, $9,900, Houston Astros (-305) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+250) — Lol.
I literally laughed when I saw how big of a favorite the Astros were tonight. I mean, it makes total sense, as Matt Harvey ($5,300) in the month of June has a .429 wOBA, a 6.25 FIP, with 20 runs allowed on 31 hits through 19 1/3 innings. He’s yet to see the Astros this season but I’m going to go out on a limb here and assume he’s going to wish it stayed that way. The Astros remain one of the best home offenses in the league, averaging 5.4 runs per game, which ranks 5th in the league. Harvey is rarely going deep into games as well, which means the Astros will have the opportunity to tee off on a bullpen that’s logged the most innings in the league over the past week at 36 2⁄3 innings. Thats over five innings more than any other team over that span. The 4.97 FIP over that span is just outside the top 10 as well, making this group of guys one to target against. No more to not like here, folks.
Other notable favorite: Steven Matz ($8,100; -250) vs. Seattle Mariners
Highest Projected Total
Kansas City Royals (+140; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-167; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — Another massive game total at Fenway Park tonight, which also is in danger of being delayed due to weather. Mike Minor ($8,900) will oppose Martin Perez ($6,500) with both pitchers seeing their opponents for the second time this season. They had success the first time around earlier this month so I’m surprised this total is as high as it is. With that said, these teams have already combined for 24 runs in the first two games, so that certainly has something to do with it. The Royals are 38-33-7 with hitting the over this season while the Red Sox sit at 38-40-2.
The Red Sox are fairly large favorites in this one and have one of the highest team totals at 5.5 runs. They’ve been a very good team against lefties at home, posting a .328 wOBA, a .167 ISO and a 104 wRC+. At home in general for the Red Sox has been the spot to target this offense, as they rank fifth in runs scored. I’m a bit iffy on the game total in this one as 11 simply feels like a lot, despite these teams clearing that mark in both games in the series. After a couple of rough outings, Perez has been sharp in 8 2/3 innings since, including five innings of one run baseball against this Royals team at Kauffman Stadium. I’d likely go with the under in this game, as the Sox bullpen has been stellar as well.
Literally almost every single game on this slate has some chance of rain. Check the overall landscape before lineups lock.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .350, 4.89
Aaron Nola, .350, 4.37
Luis Garcia, .341, 3.93
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kolby Allard, .242, 2.91
Chris Bassitt, .222, 3.74
Steven Matz, .265, 1.97
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .419, 4.82
Justus Sheffield, .386, 5.70
Steven Matz, .348, 4.46
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Bailey Ober, .186, 2.25
Joe Musgrove, .205, 2.34
Shohei Ohtani, .238, 2.18
Pitcher to Build Around
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins $10,200 — This isn’t an overly impressive slate for pitchers, so Nola is where I’ll be going in this one. This will be his second start against the Marlins after allowing just one run on two hits with six strikeouts through six innings just over a month ago. That game came on the road, where he’s been much, much worse. Now he gets them at home where he has a .265 wOBA and a 2.45 FIP. The biggest for Nola has been lefties, which won’t be much of an issue against this lineup. At the most, the Marlins will likely have two in the starting nine. Against righties, Nola has posted a 2.72 FIP with a 28.3% K% and just a 0.70 HR/9.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners $5,800 — Bichette remains quite pricey at $5,800 but he’s been hitting the ball extremely well as of late. He gets a solid matchup against Justus Sheffield ($6,300) who doesn’t just have bad numbers against righties, they get even worse on the road. When facing them away from T-Mobile Park, Sheffield has a .403 wOBA with a 6.23 FIP and six of the 13 home runs he’s allowed. As for Bichette, he’s been crushing lefties, averaging 12.7 DKFP a .445 wOBA and a .258 ISO.
Save Big by Drafting
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox vs.Kansas City Royals, $3,600 —As mentioned earlier, we have to keep an eye on the weather in this game. If it’s clear, Renfroe is still too cheap to ignore at $3,600. He’s averaging 10.1 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes three home runs, two doubles and 10 RBI. Now he faces against the lefty Minor, which is the preferred split for Renfroe. He’s posted a .456 wOBA, a .278 ISO and five of the 11 home runs he’s collected. This is a cheap way to get some exposure to what’s expected to be the highest scoring game on the night.
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