The NBA Playoffs continue to be one of the strangest we’ve ever seen, now with a 2-2 tie in the Eastern Conference Finals, and both Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo dealing with legitimate injuries. We thought Monday night would be the night we finally saw Chris Paul break through to the NBA Finals, but Paul George put on a performance for the ages to force a Game 6 in Los Angeles.
We’ve been cashing George rebound props going back to the first round of the playoffs, when they were sitting down at 7.5. We also hit on PG boards in Game 5 at O9.5 at plus-money once Ivica Zubac was ruled out. Even with the number on the rise, I still think this is worth playing — and for multiple units if Zubac is ruled out.
George is doing it all for the Clips right now, but has been crashing the glass especially hard over the last three games — 15, 16 and 13 rebounds, respectively. He’s played over 42 minutes per game during that span, and his time on the court can only go up as this series goes down to the wire with the Clippers’ backs against the wall.
While PG could always get a double-double with assists (his prop is set at 6.5 with +110 to the over), keep in mind that he is -200 to record a double-double. With the points practically a given, it feels like much better value to simply play the rebounds.
We cashed on CP3’s P/R/A over in Game 5, which was set at 31.5, but heavily juiced to the over. I prefer paying a much lower price and just tacking one more on there in a big game. Paul was finally a little better from the field, shooting 8-for-19, but was 0-for-6 from downtown, and still left a lot of easy ones on the floor. Not that Game 5 didn’t matter, but the pressure is really on this time. CP has to shoulder more of the load. I think we could see him play some extra minutes, and all it takes is getting a couple of triples down to give us some breathing room on the over.
The role player props can be overlooked, but Johnson has been tremendous in this series. The sharpshooter is averaging just shy of 11 points per game, and he’s actually hit that mark in four of the five games, with a five-point outlier in Game 4. But he played just 17 minutes in that contest for some reason, while he’s averaging over 25 minutes in the other five games. If he just gets his usual volume here, finding his way to at least eight points shouldn’t be all that much of an issue.
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