All 30 teams are in action tonight. We like that.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Freddy Peralta, $10,400, Milwaukee Brewers (-210) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+175) — Peralta has been one of the Brewers best pitchers this season and is now the biggest favorite on this full slate. Everything with Peralta checks out, as his 2.38 ERA is extremely close to his 3.01 FIP and only a 24.8% hard-hit rate allowed. He’s striking out hitters at a torrid pace as well, with a K% of 37.2% and a swing-and-miss rate of 15.2%. Now he gets a Diamondbacks offense that hasn’t done much offensively against righties, as evidenced by their .301 wOBA, a .142 ISO and an 88 wRC+. They don’t strike out a ton with a 23.1% K% but Peralta has been that good thus far.
While the Diamondbacks hover around league average against the fastball, they are one of the worst teams against the slider, ranked 26th. Peralta, who threw the fastball 77% of the team in his first two seasons, now throws the slider 31.7% of the time. He uses both the fastball and slider to put hitters away but they are whiffing on the slider 44.5% of the time.
Other notable favorite: Blake Snell ($9,200; -195) vs. New York Mets
Highest Projected Total
Oakland Athletics (-130; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+112; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — The A’s will head to Colorado for some interleague action over the weekend at Coors Field. The A’s sit at 28-28-2 with the over while the Rockies are 25-29-2. At Coors, the over is 15-14-2, which doesn’t look great but has vastly improved over the past few series.
This should certainly be a good with a high number of runs scored with Frankie Montas ($9,900) and Jon Gray ($9,000) taking the mound. Ironically, Gray has pitched much better AT Coors Field than on the road. Through 42 innings, Gray has just a .232 wOBA with a 3.78 FIP. With that said, the A’s are an extremely tough lineup and I would expect the runs to come in. The good news here is that the Rockies bullpen, at home, has been abysmal with a 5.22 FIP and a 1.8 HR/9.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Shoemaker, .392, 6.40
Luis Castillo, .389, 4.54
Matt Peacock, .368, 7.28
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Cody Poteet, .156, 2.83
Blake Snell, .185, 1.78
Julio Urias, .207, 2.37
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Blake Snell, .391, 5.53
Brad Keller, .388, 5.42
Luis Castillo, .383, 5.04
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .230, 1.84
Matt Peacock, .235, 2.23
Zack Wheeler, .253, 2.45
Pitcher to Build Around
Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, $8,500 — On a slate where we have six pitchers priced at over $10,000, Eovaldi doesn’t exactly stick out. But, we need to have a serious chat about this start and hopefully we can be different than the field. Ok, ready? I have one sentence to tell you and it’s very important.
THE. YANKEES. AREN’T. HITTING. THE. BALL.
Over the past week, the Yankees are averaging 2.4 runs per game, a 27.5% K%, a .280 wOBA and a .127 ISO. Like it’s not just bad, it’s BAD BAD. So now we have Eovaldi, who has superior command, has been keeping the ball in the park and if anything, has been getting unlucky with a 2.33 FIP compared to his 4.01 ERA. I think this lines up extremely well for him today. I’m finding it hard to believe that his ownership will be high either, so this could be an extremely sneaky spot for Eovaldi. The team total for the Yankees is set at 4.5 for tonight (-108 for both the over and under) but this total has certainly been trending on the under as of late.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Pete Alonso, New York Mets at San Diego Padres, $5,200 — I honestly have no idea what’s going on with Blake Snell ($9,200) but I think it’s safe to say he’s unplayable until further notice. So, with that in mind, we should be targeting hitters against him. Going against the Mets, Alonso fits the mold. Against righties, Snell is allowing a ridiculous .391 wOBA, a 5.53 FIP and seven of the eight home runs he’s allowed. As for Alonso, his .326 wOBA and .214 ISO against lefties is what I’m hoping comes through. Since returning to the lineup, Alonso is averaging 10 DKFP by going 5-for-14 with a home run and five RBI in four games.
Save Big by Drafting
Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, $3,300 — This is simply too cheap of a salary for Verdugo. He’s facing Michael King ($6,300) who we haven’t seen a ton of this season but can pull back and check out his career numbers. Against lefties, he sports a .348 wOBA with a 5.36 FIP and three of the seven career home runs he’s allowed. He just got lit up against the Tigers in when he allowed four runs (two earned) on three hits and two walks in 2 1/3 innings. As for Verdugo, he continues to post some really good numbers against righties with a .387 wOBA, a .209 ISO and a 147 wRC+.
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