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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Mets vs. Padres Showdown on June 5

Zach Thompson gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Mets and Padres, which starts at 10:10 p.m. ET.

New York Mets v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Saturday night Showdown on DraftKings this week is a fun National League matchup between the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres. The season started with high expectations for both teams and both have been well over .500. Even though the Padres have a much better record, they sit one game out of first place in their division while the Mets lead the NL East with their 27-23 mark coming into Saturday’s contest. The series started Thursday, and the Padres have taken the first two games, 4-3 and 2-0.

The Mets will look to get their first win of the four-game set and set up a potential split by giving the ball to their ace, Jacob deGrom ($16,800 CP; $11,200), who will go up against Joe Musgrove ($15,300 CP; $10,200) for San Diego. With deGrom on the mound, the Mets are favored on DraftKings Sportsbook with a -120 moneyline while the over/under for this game is extremely low at just 5.5 runs. No other game today has an over/under of below 7.5, which shows how much respect these two starting pitchers bring to what is expected to be a pitchers’ duel.

There are some interesting fantasy plays to consider on both sides of this matchup, so let’s take a look at to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.


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Captain’s Picks

Jacob deGrom ($16,800 CP) - While deGrom is an obvious pick, that definitely doesn’t mean he’s a wrong one. The Mets’ ace has been outstanding when healthy this season, posting an astounding 14.47 K/9 to go with a 4-2 record, a 1.53 FIP and a sterling 0.71 ERA. He has not given up multiple earned runs in any of his eight starts and has eight or more strikeouts in six of those appearances.

He hasn’t faced the Padres this season, but he has been matchup-proof to this point, posting at least 22 DKFP in every start and averaging 34.3 DKFP per game. Even if the Padres do scratch out a run or two, deGrom’s dominant strikeout numbers should help overcome any negatives and still make him a strong play.

Manny Machado ($12,900 CP) - Since Musgrove has been pitching very well in addition to deGrom, it is worth considering an SP stack, which is very doable if you take advantage of some slightly-reduced hitter’s salary in the Captain’s spot. Machado hit his seventh home run of the season on Friday night, driving in all the runs in the Padres’ 2-0 win and finishing with 18 DKFP. He has four homers in his past eight games, going 8-for-29 (.275) with 8.5 DKFP per contest. He seems to be ready to put a minor shoulder issue behind him and get back on a nice roll. He has also had some limited success against deGrom, going 6-for-15 (.400) with two stolen bases in their past matchups. All the Padres’ bats look extremely affordable due to their difficult matchup and Macahdo is actually cheaper than James McCann ($14,100 CP; $9,400) and Jonathan Villar ($13,500 CP; $9,000), which is very unusual, to say the least.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$1K to 1st] (NYM vs SD)


Value Plays

Dominic Smith ($8,400) - Smith wasn’t in the lineup last night against lefty Blake Snell, but he has been hitting well lately with multiple hits and at least 10 DKFP in four of his previous seven starts. The 25-year-old has only three homers and a .098 ISO in his 48 games this season, but his .296 wOBA shows there’s room to expect improvement. He has been trending the right way with a .295 average and .335 wOBA since May 1. Most of his power production has come against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a 30.9% hard-hit rate.

Victor Caratini ($4,800) - Caratini is a solid punt play if he’s in the lineup for the Padres and could be the kind of player you need to captain deGrom and still fit Musgrove in your lineup as well. Caratini got last night off but will likely return Saturday since he’s the Padres’ primary catcher while Austin Nola (knee) is on the injured list. The 27-year-old has a .133 ISO and .294 wOBA in his first year with the Padres with a 44.4% hard-hit rate. He also has hit deGrom surprisingly well, going 4-for-9 with a pair of home runs.


Fades

Jake Cronenworth ($7,400) - Offense is expected to be pretty rare in this matchup, so stacking bats is a strategy to avoid. Cronenworth is only 5-for-40 (.125) over his past 10 games and has hit a little bit of a rough patch. Usually, he’s someone I like a lot in my lineup since he’s in the heart of the order, but I’m passing on him in this matchup against deGrom along with most of the Padres’ lineup especially. I do like Francisco Lindor ($9,600) in addition to Machado, but the rest of the bats I’m looking at are more on the value side of the spectrum.


The Outcome

The Padres face an uphill battle against deGrom, but Musgrove has been outstanding as well. Don’t expect many runs in this late-night contest, but it should be fun to watch deGrom look to continue his dominant run against such a strong lineup. Ultimately, I think the Padres will get just enough offense to take the win, and the Mets’ lineup will fail to support deGrom once again.

Final Score: Padres 3, Mets 1

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$1K to 1st] (NYM vs SD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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