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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Red Sox vs. Yankees Showdown on June 6

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Red Sox and Yankees, which starts at 7:08 p.m. ET.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Two storied franchises will square off on Sunday night’s national broadcast. The hitters are familiar, and DFS players know exactly what they are getting from the bats, but the same cannot be said of the pitchers. Garrett Richards ($15,000 CP; $10,000) is experiencing a revitalization since joining Boston this season. Domingo German ($16,200 CP; $10,800) is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. He’s one step away from being great and one pitch away from a home run.



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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Captain’s Picks

Garrett Richards ($15,000 CP) - This is the part where we pretend to be seasoned pitching coaches, or we just know how to use Google and read reports about players. In his first four starts, Richards allowed 12 earned runs, but in his last seven starts, he’s only allowed 13 earned runs. What happened? He changed his delivery. His windup is shorter and his leg kick is much lower. This has given him better control of his pitches and they have become more effective. In the first four games, his curveball had a -2.67 run value and his fastball was at -0.42. Since the changes, his curveball is now scored at 0.32 and his fastball is at 0.82. Last season, Richards’ curveball surrendered a .369 xwOBA, but this season, even with the bad start, batters have a .237 xwOBA against the pitch. The Yankees are no strangers to striking out against right-handed batters at 26.1%, which is the fourth worst in the league, and they rank in the bottom third against curveballs.

Rafael Devers ($13,800 CP) - German will allow home runs to any batter regardless of their handedness, but against left-handed batters, he’s allowed a 44% hard-contact rate. That combined with a 44% flyball rate should result in at least one home run for a lefty at Yankee Stadium and Devers is the best left-handed batter on the Red Sox. Against right-handed pitching, he has a (.414 wOBA, .388 ISO, 165 wRC+ and a 53% hard-contact rate). Devers is fine against left-handed pitching (.343 wOBA), but he only hits for power against right-handed pitching (13 of his 15 home runs are against right-handed pitching).


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (BOS vs NYY)


Value Plays

Alex Verdugo ($7,000) - German never blows up. He’s the king of solo shots. The expensive bats are more likely to cash in on German’s propensity to allow flyballs, but Verdugo is a lefty and German has been more sensitive to that side of the plate. Verdugo has a .385 wOBA, .205 ISO and 145 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and he’s only striking out 11% of the time. He’s very likely to make contact against German, and nearly half of the contact against German is hard and hit in the air. That tends to play out well for hitters in Yankee Stadium.

Hunter Renfroe ($7,400) - He’s riding a nine-game hit streak and he has the third-highest wOBA over the last two weeks (.514). His ISO is .333 and he’s scored 10 runs over that span. Of course, BABIP is on his side, but that happens when a batter is hitting everything hard (average exit velocity of 95 mph). German has been pretty good for a pitcher that’s allowing 1.8 HR/9. He strikes out 26% of right-handed batters and doesn’t walk them either 4.3%, but he allows a 44% fly-ball rate. That’s pretty dangerous in Yankee Stadium, and it’s not surprising that he has surrendered five multi-home run games this season.


Fades

Domingo German ($16,200 CP; $10,800) - Pitchers are always highly-priced on Showdown slates or even regular slates because of their ability to earn strikeouts. There are simply more opportunities for pitchers to score fantasy points, so their price reflects that opportunity. German is the highest-priced player on the slate, but the opportunity is not there. He strikes out five to six batters in each start, but he also allows a lot of home runs. Boston has the fifth-best team wOBA and ISO, and the seventh-best wRC+. He’ll get his five strikeouts, but he’s going to give up shots. He has one of the worst fastballs in baseball (.437 xwOBA, an average exit velocity of 95.5 mph and a 27-degree launch angle), and he can’t hide it. Pitchers have to throw a fastball.


The Outcome

Both pitchers will navigate these offenses effectively, but German will struggle to keep the ball inside the park. The Yankees’ bullpen will stop the bleeding, but the early damage will be too much. Richards will pitch a solid game and the Red Sox will sweep the Yankees.

Final Score: Red Sox 5, Yankees 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (BOS vs NYY)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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