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The second round of the playoffs got officially underway on Saturday, and we’ll have another second-round contest on Sunday. The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Philadelphia 76ers in what should be an entertaining series.
The 76ers were the best team in the East during the regular season, but they have a huge question mark at the moment. Joel Embiid is dealing with a small tear in his meniscus, and he is currently questionable for Game 1. Embiid was an MVP candidate when healthy this season, so his absence would obviously be a massive deal. Even if he is able to play, there’s no guarantee he’s as effective as usual.
On the other side, the Hawks entered the postseason as one of the more undervalued teams in the league. They went 27-11 after Nate McMillan took over at coach, which was the third-best mark in the league. They dispatched the Knicks relatively easily in the first round, winning each of the final three games by at least 11 points.
Despite the Embiid concerns, the 76ers are still listed as -200 favorites to win the series and three-point favorites in Game 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings is offering up a Showdown for this contest, so let’s break down some of the top options to consider for your lineups.
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Captain’s Picks
Tobias Harris ($15,000 CP) – If Embiid is out or limited, Harris figures to be the primary beneficiary. He’s taken over as the 76ers’ top scoring option in that situation this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high 4.2% with Embiid off the court. His average of 1.22 DKFP per minute in that situation also ranks first on the squad.
Harris went off with Embiid out of the lineup in Game 5 of their first-round series vs. the Wizards, finishing with 57.25 DKFP.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Joel Embiid will play in today’s game.
Ben Simmons ($14,400 CP) – I think the decision at Captain in this matchup comes down to Harris vs. Simmons. Simmons doesn’t see the same scoring bump as Harris with Embiid off the floor, but Simmons doesn’t rely on scoring for his fantasy value. He racked up a triple-double in Game 5 vs. the Wizards, finishing with 56.5 DKFP on 19 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. Simmons also has the easier individual matchup in this series, with the Hawks struggling against point guards for most of the season.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $80K Fadeaway [$20K to 1st] (ATL vs PHI)
UTIL Plays
Trae Young ($10,600) – Young is the most expensive player in this segment, but he’s third on my list of stud targets. He’s going to have his hands full trying to score against this excellent 76ers defense. They ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, and Simmons is one of the best individual defenders in the league. Expect Young to draw that matchup quite a bit, which could keep his fantasy value in check.
That said, Young is coming off a huge series vs. the Knicks in the first round, who were an elite defensive team in their own right. That means Young can still find some success in this matchup.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,000) – Gallinari needs to fire whoever told him to go with that playoff mohawk he’s been sporting. I know his nickname is “The Rooster,” but that’s pushing things a little too far.
Despite his terrible haircut, Gallo has been providing fantasy owners with excellent value during the postseason. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but he scored at least 20.75 DKFP in his previous three games. His salary has dropped from $5,700 in Game 5 vs. the Knicks to just $4,000 on Sunday, which makes him an elite buy-low target.
Furkan Korkmaz ($2,000) – Korkmaz becomes enticing at just $2,000 if Embiid ultimately sits. He played 14.4 minutes in his last game without Embiid, and while that’s not a ton of playing time, he’s capable of making the most of it. He’s averaged 0.86 DKFP with Embiid off the court this season, so he should be able to crack double-digits if Embiid is ruled out. That’s all you’re really looking for at $2,000.
Fades
John Collins ($7,200) – Collins is a quality NBA player, but he’s not the type of player I typically roster in Showdown. Stars-and-scrubs is the preferred strategy, and Collins is smack dab in the middle of the pricing spectrum. Going with him means you’re likely going to have to sacrifice one of Young, Harris or Simmons, and that’s not a sacrifice I’m willing to make.
THE OUTCOME
The Embiid situation is obviously something we’re going to need to monitor before tip-off, but my tentative prediction is that he ends up sitting. This is only the first game of the series, and pushing him too hard too soon could be disastrous. I think they try to see if they can win Game 1 at home without him.
Unfortunately, I don’t think they will. The Hawks are being seriously undervalued right now. They have a strong roster – arguably better than the 76ers without Embiid – yet they’re listed as solid underdogs in this series. I think that’s a mistake. I have some exposure to the Hawks at +160 to win this series, and stealing Game 1 on the road would be a great start for a potential upset.
From a DFS perspective, I’m locking in the four-man core of Young, Simmons, Harris and Gallinari, and then it just comes down to finding the final two options and moving them into the correct spots in your lineup. Easier said than done, but that’s my approach to this matchup.
Final Score: Hawks 109, 76ers 105
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $80K Fadeaway [$20K to 1st] (ATL vs PHI)
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