Monday only features three MLB games. Here’s my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook bet for each contest.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has been scratched from today’s game vs. the Red Sox.
The Marlins have a quick pit stop in Boston for a make-up game before they head back home to face the Rockies. Plainly, Miami isn’t getting it done right now. Losing two to the Red Sox then two to Toronto is one thing. But dropping three out of four to Pittsburgh? Yikes.
Miami, who’s 18th in OPS and 21st in ISO against right-handers over the last two weeks, now has to take on one of baseball’s surprise stories of 2021, Nick Pivetta. The Red Sox righty just shut down the Astros, who have the seventh-best OPS against righties over the last two weeks.
Combine that with the fact Boston’s offense woke up at the end of their trip to Houston and kept rolling in New York, and Miami doesn’t stand much of a chance Monday.
But none of that will have an impact on Lopez’s chances at punching out six in this one. Boston is striking out fairly frequently against right-handed pitchers of late — more so than any of the last three teams Lopez faced, and he was one strikeout away vs. the Phillies from hitting the over on Monday’s strikeout prop in all three of those starts. The Red Sox have been chasing pitches out of the zone more than any other MLB team over the last couple weeks, and they aren’t making much contact on those pitches, ranking 19th in O-Contact% during that span. Hitters run into Lopez’s offerings out of the zone quite often, yet he still has an 11.1 swinging strike rate and a 9.1 K/9.
The Royals have been seeing right-handers pretty well of late, posting the seventh-best OPS against those pitchers over the last two weeks. On Monday, Kansas City hitters get another crack at Bundy in the first of their three-game set vs. the Angels. The righty last faced the Royals on April 13, a start in which he hit the over on Monday’s hits allowed prop — an occurrence that’s far from an exception this season.
Bundy has given up five-plus hits in eight of his 10 2021 starts, doing so in all of his five starts throughout May — a month that was not so kind to the righty.
So, in short, the Royals are hitting righties well of late and Bundy isn’t exactly rolling. Getting five hits off of him should be no problem for Kansas City.
Both offenses are coming off frustrating series, but Adbert Alzolay and Ryan Weathers each faced their Monday opponents the last time they took the mound. This is a tough one to call.
Ultimately, I’m putting my faith in San Diego’s offense because of one man: Fernando Tatis Jr.
After going 2-for-4 with a home run in the series opener vs. the Mets, Tatis went 2-for-10 with a double. Small sample size, but you can’t keep this guy down for long. Also, Tatis didn’t play when Alzolay started vs. San Diego on June 2. The face of baseball will make it much harder for the Chicago righty to replicate what he did last time out.
Chicago’s bullpen has been good this season, but Cubs relievers have combined for a 4.37 FIP since the start of June. Given their June ERA stands at 2.28 after a handful of games, regression seems to be in order.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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