Well, stop me if you’re heard this one before, but the weather on the east coast of the country is looking bleak and it’s going to effect tonight’s 15-game MLB slate. We’ve got the possibility of rain in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Pittsburgh, which if you’re counting, is essentially half of Tuesday’s scheduled action.
It’s going to be a bit of a headache, so make sure you keep checking weather reports as we get closer to lock. With that caveat in mind, let’s break down tonight’s slate position-by-position.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals, $10,000 - I also like the prospects of Chris Bassitt ($8,800) and Pablo Lopez ($8,700) on tonight’s slate, but when it comes to pure upside, Glasnow has to be considered the best of the bunch. For the season as a whole, the RHP has been incredibly successful, pitching to a 2.75 xERA with a 35.6% strikeout rate. However, Glasnow’s been almost untouchable at Tropicana Field, where he’s posted a 1.72 ERA and held opponents to a microscopic .206 wOBA. On Tuesday, it’s the Nationals heading south, which also bodes well for Glasnow. Washington owns just a 67 wRC+ across the past two weeks — the lowest mark in the Nationals League.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals, $7,100 - Here’s where I’ve landed with Heaney, who can be a nightmare to roster on occasion: Don’t use him the nights that he’s $9K, but consider him the nights he’s $7K. I’m aware it’s a pretty simple philosophy, but the left-hander’s floor is so much more stable when you’re not breaking the bank. Plus, for all his struggles so far in 2021, Heaney still comes into tonight’s matchup with the Royals — a team that’s posted an underwhelming .139 ISO against LHPs — with a 3.68 xFIP and a 29.1% strikeout rate. You don’t have to look to hard to find reasons to like the Angels’ starter.
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This week we need ONE of these three to hit a home run to get the ✅.
Jesse Winker OR Matt Olson OR Andrew McCutchen boosted from -115 to +105.
Place your bets here: https://t.co/XnNQ6GXDti pic.twitter.com/wFVK4JTQPM
James McCann, New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, $5,100 - It’s a little crazy that we’ve reached the point where McCann is the most expensive catching option on a 15-game slate, but in this specific scenario, the numbers do back up the price tag. Not only has McCann been on fire in June, but for the season, he’s continued to hit left-handed pitching exceedingly well, posting a .333 ISO and a 156 wRC+ within the split. It’s not like Bruce Zimmerman ($5,700) is just any LHP, either, as Baltimore’s starter comes into tonight’s contest with an ugly 6.25 xERA.
Eric Haase, Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, $3,900 - Haase is quickly becoming one of my favorite daily value options at the catcher position. At some point, the power numbers are going to regress — clubbing five home runs in your past five games is not usually a repeatable trait — however, I think it’s already fair to assume that the 28-year-old can hit left-handed pitching. Haase comes into Tuesday with a .415 wOBA within the split in 2021, not to mention a .295 career ISO in 47 plate appearances against lefties at the MLB level. Marco Gonzales ($7,600) would be wise to tread carefully with the rookie backstop.
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Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets, $5,400 - How many people know that the Orioles sit second in baseball in wOBA versus LHPs? Probably not as many as you might think. However, that is in fact the case, and a big reason for their success within the split is Mancini, who comes into Tuesday with a .319 ISO and a 179 wRC+ when facing a lefty in 2021. David Peterson ($7,800) will be the left-hander Baltimore draws this evening, which makes Mancini even more enticing, as Peterson’s pitched to an underwhelming 7.20 ERA across his past five outings.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets, $3,600 - After a dreadful start to the season, Mountcastle has definitely picked up his play. In fact, dating back to May 22, the rookie is slashing .372/.413/.860 with a .488 ISO and a 246 wRC+. Those are video game numbers, but it’s what can happen when you register 10 extra-base hits in your last 43 at-bats. Also, much like his aforementioned teammate, Mountcastle can hit southpaws, as his 158 wRC+ within the split ranks just behind Mancini on the Orioles’ roster. Thankfully, with Mountcastle possessing outfield eligibility, you can use both in a single lineup this evening.
Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, $4,200 - This is going to sound hyperbolic, but Schoop might currently be the hottest hitter in all of baseball. Don’t believe me? Well, going back to May 15, the veteran owns a .325 ISO and a 201 wRC+ in his last 94 plate appearances. Again, he’s hotter than the sun right now, and a matchup with Gonzales probably isn’t going to be the thing that cools him down. In fact, Schoop’s managed an .886 OPS against LHPs so far in 2021, so the good times will likely keep rolling.
Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,900 - Oakland has one of the highest implied team totals on tonight’s slate and the reasoning for that is simple: Jon Duplantier ($5,000). The young RHP has not been very successful in his first two outings of 2021, pitching to a 9.37 FIP and surrendering an opponent barrel on a whopping 16.7% of his batted ball events. That’s all very, very bad. Lowrie, who consistently hits in the middle of the Athletics’ order, should have plenty of opportunity to make an impact in this matchup.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals, $4,400 - So, Anthony Rendon is sort of starting to look like Anthony Rendon again. The third baseman has multi-hit performances in three of his last six starts, while he’s also posted a 134 wRC+ with just a 3.7% strikeout rate so far in June. That’s all very promising and tonight he’ll have a chance to continue his recent success in a matchup with Kris Bubic ($6,300). Going back to the beginning of 2017, Rendon sports a .404 wOBA in nearly 600 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. If he’s truly himself again, he should be able to do some damage.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves, $3,000 - Look, there aren’t really many redeeming aspects to Bohm’s current form; however, the little success the rookie has had in 2021 has almost exclusively come against left-handed pitching. To wit, Bohm’s .310 wOBA versus southpaws is 94 points higher than his mark against RHPs. Also, Bohm’s viability is more about the presence of Drew Smyly ($6,400) than anything else. The lefty has allowed an eye-popping 2.70 home runs per nine in his 46.2 innings of work, a direct product of 48.6% of Smyly’s BBEs having an exit velocity of over 95 mph. If Bohm can’t make something happen in this matchup, I’m not sure what’s left.
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,100 - For his career, Anderson is hitting .321 with a 131 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Heck, in 55 plate appearances within the split in 2020, the shortstop posted an insane .551 ISO. There’s a reason that in a lineup full of people that can mash southpaws, Anderson is selected to bat first. Anyway, he’ll get a great matchup this evening in the form of Robbie Ray ($9,500). While the veteran is having his best campaign since 2017, he’s currently conceding a barrel in 11.8% of his batted ball events — tied for the third-worst rate among all qualified pitchers. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
Freddy Galvis, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets, $3,600 - So, for the past week or so, Galvis has been the Orioles’ clean-up hitter? Makes perfect sense. Alright, I wouldn’t go that far, but the veteran infielder is actually having a pretty nice season, and a large portion of his success has come as a right-handed batter. In fact, Galvis is slashing .305/.349/.576 with a 155 wRC+ in his 63 plate appearances within the split. Peterson, who is tied with the aforementioned Ray with an 11.8% barrel rate, should struggle immensely with this Baltimore lineup.
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $4,600 - It remains odd that Winker continues to be less than $5K on most slates. What does the guy have to do? The outfielder currently leads all National League players in both slugging percentage (.665) and wOBA (.456) and yet he’s priced below the likes of Garrett Hampson ($5,100) and Chris Taylor ($4,700). It’s just weird. Anyway, the Reds will square-off with Adrian Houser ($8,300) on Tuesday, a man who has throughly struggled with LHBs throughout his career. Winker is a steal at this modest salary.
Manuel Margot, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals, $3,100 - It’s almost impossible to predict how Kevin Cash is going to fill out a lineup card, but Margot hit leadoff the last time the Rays faced a lefty and that could happen once again this evening. The speedy outfielder doesn’t possess a lot of pop in his bat; however, for his career, Margot has managed a 104 wRC+ versus LHPs, and a 50.9% swing rate suggests that he won’t be looking to draw walks in tonight’s matchup against Jon Lester ($6,900). I’m always a sucker for aggressiveness when it comes to DFS.
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