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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for June 8

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

After one of the oddest schedules yesterday, every single team is in action tonight starting at 7 p.m. ET. I’ll grace you with all the info to get you set for this monster.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tyler Glasnow, $10,000, Tampa Bay Rays (-215) vs. Washington Nationals (+180) — The biggest stud on the Rays is also the biggest favorite tonight on this 15-game slate. The Nationals will be visiting for some interleague action and have to deal with a man 35.6% K% and a stellar 3.05 FIP, which is very close to his 2.69 ERA. The Nationals not a patient team, as they hardly walk (7.5% BB%; 28th) but also don’t strikeout a ton (22.2% K%; 26th). With that said, their offensive numbers are nothing impressive with a .300 wOBA, a .137 ISO and an 88 wRC+. Glasnow is completely on a different level when it comes to racking up strikeouts, as he’s reached double-digits in six of his 12 starts. Only once did he strikeout less than a batter an inning when he only had two against the Blue Jays through 4 23 innings.

From a betting perspective, the Rays are 8-4 in his starts and won three of their last four when he takes the hill. The Rays are 19-12 as favorites this season and 10-6 as home favorites.

Other notable favorite: Chris Bassitt ($8,800; -210) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Highest Projected Total

Houston Astros (-124; 5.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (+107; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — I’m really, really torn on this total for tonight with the Astros and Red Sox. The Astros have been one of the best teams hitting the over at 35-22-2 (61.4% cover) while the Red Sox have been one of the worst at 27-32-1 (45.8%). The Red Sox are also 14-15-1 as the home team with the over while the Astros are 16-8-2 as the away team. Finally, both pitchers taking the mound have been pretty damn good and both have shut down the opposing team once already. Framber Valdez ($8,600) threw seven innings of one run baseball against the Sox on June 2nd. Martin Perez ($7,400) went on to shutout the Astros through 7 23 innings the next night.

I think this is a bet I’m going to steer clear of. The hitting conditions are going to be hot and humid but like the majority of the games, a threat of rain will be present all throughout the evening. 10 does feel a bit high for how well both of these pitchers have thrown but this is one I simply don’t want to mess with. In the end, my lean here would be on the under but I’m not actively looking to bet this game, especially with every team on the board tonight.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st

Weather Notes

We have A LOT of games for the potential of rain around first pitch. Instead of rambling about the same thing for each game, I’ll list them all below along with the percentage for precipitation.

New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles (54%)
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (58%)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (21%)
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (66%)
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (65%)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (58%)
Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals (29%)

You got all that? Good lord.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Drew Smyly, .431, 6.56
David Peterson, .378, 2.94
Aaron Nola, .344, 4.23

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Montgomery, .131, 1.26
Carlos Rodon, .154, 0.42
Marco Gonzales, .175, 3.94

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Marco Gonzales, .409, 6.14
Jordan Lyles, .391, 5.31
Zach Davies, .389, 4.64

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .239, 3.07
Carlos Rodon, .249, 3.17
Aaron Nola, .261, 2.44

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals, $10,300 — Yes, he’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate but boy is he in a great spot tonight. The Cardinals are really struggling on offense as of late and have been striking out a TON. Over the past week, this team has a 28.6% K%, which ranks as the fourth-highest in that span. In addition to the strikeouts, they have just a .285 wOBA, a .124 ISO and an 82 wRC+ over the this past week. I don’t have to really convince anyone to play Bieber but looking at those types of numbers and seeing Bieber with at least seven strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts, it’s worth paying up for the most expensive option.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $4,600 — The salary clearly didn’t update enough from the 50 DKFP Winker posted on Sunday against the Cardinals. Channeling his inner Scooter Gennett, Winker had multiple home runs in the game, blasting three while knocking in six. Now he has the luxury of facing Adrian Houser ($8,300), who has his fair share of struggles against lefties. Houser has been tagged for a .318 wOBA, a a 4.69 FIP and four of the nine home runs he’s allowed to them this season. As for Winker, all he’s done is post a .495 wOBA, a .366 ISO and 16 of the 17 home runs he’s hit on the year.

Save Big by Drafting

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets, $3,600 — Mountcastle is on a hell of a run right now and is showing no signs of slowing down. Over his last six games, he’s gone 11-for-24 with four home runs, three doubles, nine RBI and an average of 17.1 DKFP. Grabbing someone who is as hot as he is, not to mention he’s both first base and outfield eligible, feels like a steal. He’ll be facing David Peterson ($7,800), who has really been regressing lately. Over his last three starts, Peterson has allowed 11 runs on 13 hits through just 11 innings of work. On the year against lefties, Mountcastle now has a a .398 wOBA a. 246 ISO and three of the eight home runs he’s hit.

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