The Atlanta Hawks went into Philadelphia on Sunday and punched the Sixers in the mouth, the cheek, the nose, and the eyes, eventually walking away with a 128-124 victory. The venerable Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Let’s see if the Philadelphia 76ers have formulated that plan. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Sixers favored by 6.5 points with the O/U at 225. That line has gone up a full point since last night.
Joel Embiid ($17,400 CP) - There’s risk here with Embiid because he acknowledged that there is pain in his knee and it’s just about managing it. That said, he did go for 39 points, nine rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and one steal in 38 minutes during Game 1, which translated to 62.75 DKFP. The usage rate was 34% so he’s heavily involved when on the court. Embiid is not only an offensive force that can score from all three levels, but he cleans the glass and racks up defensive stats. The floor/ceiling combo is the best on the slate and he is the highest projected player. Even with Embiid in the CP slot, you can still fit in two high-priced players and feel good about the lineup.
Trae Young ($16,500 CP) - In these playoffs, Young has gone for at least 40 DKFP in every game with three above 55. In Game 1 against the Sixers, he produced 35 points, two rebounds, 10 assists, and two steals, good for 58 DKFP. The usage rate was 34%. He’s shown that he will cook in one-on-one situations and is absolutely deadly in the pick-and-roll because of the shooters on the wings along with Capela and Collins as alley-oop threats. Trae is the engine that makes the Hawks go and I expect him to have a big game regardless of the adjustments that the Sixers employ.
Furkan Korkmaz ($1,200) - Korkmaz only played 11 minutes last game and hasn’t received more than 16 minutes of run in these playoffs. That said, he may be the piece to unlock everything. He’s only $1,200 but he’s scored at least 12 DKFP in four of six games these playoffs.
Kevin Huerter ($4,600) - Huerter played 29 minutes in Game 1 and put up 30.25 DKFP. De’Andre Hunter ($4,200) did not play in that one so he saw elevated minutes as a result. If Hunter returns to action, Huerter won’t be a complete zero, though. He will still play in the 20-25 minute range and score in the high-teens to low-20s for DKFP. Huerter is an adept shooter from downtown, so if the Sixers blitz Trae, he can make them pay. He’s not just a spot-up shooter, though, as he can navigate pick-and-roll action and become a secondary creator.
Seth Curry ($6,000) - Curry has been spicy hot recently. He’s shot 54%, 58%, and 58% on 11, 17, and 12 attempts in three of the last four games. That’s translated to 27.5, 33.5, and 33 DKFP. All season long, the Hawks have been the most generous to shooting guards, boosting the FPPM by 28.81% above the league average with an 11.2% boost for three-pointers.
STEVE BUCHANAN'S SUPERSTAR TRIO ODDS BOOST ON @DKSportsbook.— Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan24) June 8, 2021
This week we need ONE of these three to hit a home run to get the ✅.
Jesse Winker OR Matt Olson OR Andrew McCutchen boosted from -115 to +105.
Place your bets here: https://t.co/XnNQ6GXDti pic.twitter.com/wFVK4JTQPM
Clint Capela ($13,500 CP; $9,000) - I do like Capela because he is a double-double machine and will get some blocks but I think he’s a little overpriced here. Plus, there’s always the risk of foul trouble guarding Embiid. In these playoffs, Capela has scored over 36 DKFP just once and went for 28.5 DKFP in Game 1.
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
I like Atlanta getting the points but lean towards a Philadelphia win. I usually go to the home team bouncing back after losing the first game in a playoff series, especially for a team as talented as the Sixers. I’ve just been so impressed with the Hawks. Since Nate McMillan took over, they are 30-11, including the playoffs. Two of those losses were to the Sixers but Bogdanovic and Huerter did not play in either game while Young missed one. Atlanta is 3rd in defensive efficiency during the playoffs, only turns the ball over 11.8 times per game, and converts 85% of free-throw attempts. Those will always keep a team within striking distance.
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