Tuesday’s MLB slate is a large one, with all 30 teams taking the field. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This game has the potential to be a bit of a slugfest.
The Mets will send left-handed pitcher David Peterson to the mound, and he has had a rough go of it recently. He owns a 5.89 ERA and 5.13 FIP for the season, and things were particularly rough for him in his last outing. He allowed five earned runs over just 1/3 of an inning, and that was against a relatively light-hitting Diamondbacks squad. His biggest problem this season has been the long ball, with a whopping 29.0% of his fly balls allowed turning into home runs. That could be a problem in Baltimore, which has been the second-friendliest stadium this season in terms of home runs (per ESPN’s Park Factors).
On the other side, I expect the Mets to put up some runs as well. Their offense has quietly shown signs of life recently – they rank third in wRC+ over the past 14 days – and they have an exploitable matchup vs. left-handed pitcher Bruce Zimmermann. Zimmermann owns a 5.35 FIP this season, and he’s been equally poor against LHB and RHB.
Since I’m targeting the starting pitchers in this contest, I’m looking to take the over for the first five innings instead of the full game. That wager also provides a slightly better payout at +108.
STEVE BUCHANAN'S SUPERSTAR TRIO ODDS BOOST ON @DKSportsbook.— Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan24) June 8, 2021
This week we need ONE of these three to hit a home run to get the ✅.
Jesse Winker OR Matt Olson OR Andrew McCutchen boosted from -115 to +105.
Place your bets here: https://t.co/XnNQ6GXDti pic.twitter.com/wFVK4JTQPM
The Twins are shaping up to be a sharp target on Tuesday. They’ve received just 22% of the spread bets in this contest, but those bets have accounted for 47% of the spread dollars. That’s one of the largest discrepancies of the day, and it typically is a strong indicator that the professionals are siding with the Twins.
The Twins have been a major disappointment so far this season, but they will have one of their better starting pitchers on the mound in this contest. Michael Pineda will take the hill, and he’s pitched to a respectable 3.40 ERA through his first nine starts this season. He has been extremely effective against right-handed batters, limiting them to a .277 wOBA over 23 innings, and he’s also pitched to a 2.62 ERA at home.
That could spell trouble for the Yankees. Their offense is loaded with right-handed batters, and they have been mediocre against right-handed pitchers this season. They rank just 16th in wRC+ for the season, and that mark drops to 26th over the past 14 days. I don’t expect the Yankees’ offense to struggle all season, but this doesn’t seem like a good spot for them to get right.
Bieber set the record for K/9 by a starting pitcher last season, and he’s off to another great start in 2021. He hasn’t been quite as prolific, but he’s still averaging 13.33 strikeouts per nine innings through his first 12 starts. That’s the third-highest mark in the league, trailing only Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes.
I’m willing to roll the dice on the over with his strikeout prop vs. the Cardinals. They haven’t been an easy matchup for strikeouts so far this season – they own the 11th-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching – but they’ve been 10th in that department over the past 14 days. The Cardinals’ offense has also struggled to generate offense vs. right-handed pitchers this season, so Bieber could pitch deep into this game. He will likely need to pitch at least seven innings to hit the over on the current number, but he’s done that in each of his past two starts.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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