Weather wasn’t too big of an issue last night but we have to keep our eye on it once again for this 12-game slate. Let’s take a look at how I’m attacking this slate from both a daily fantasy and sportsbook perspective.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole, $11,200, New York Yankees (-182) at Minnesota Twins (+160) — Well, this will be an interesting start. With MLB cracking down on illegal substances, rumors flying that Cole was involved and him allowing five runs in his last start, all eyes will be on the Yankees ace tonight. Against the Rays in his last start, Cole allowed five runs on five hits while striking out seven, good for only 11.1 DKFP. The numbers indicate he got a bit unlucky with a 4.15 FIP compared to his 9.00 ERA but the Rays also had a 38.5% hard-hit rate. I’m not diving into conspiracy theories but man, the timing on this was certainly interesting.
Tonight, he faces a Twins team that has been one of the better hitting clubs against righties, posting a .321 wOBA with a .178 ISO and a 105 wRC+. This offense has been picking it up more as of late as well, averaging 4.2 runs over the past five games, including four last night against the Yankees. They’re running Randy Dobnak ($5,700) out tonight, so I wouldn’t be overly excited to back him but the +1.5 for the Twins on the run line is intriguing. You’re getting close to plus money on this line (-104) against a team who when favored are 22-35 on the run line. As underdogs, the Twins are 9-9 on the run line. Something to consider.
Other notable favorite: Shane McClanahan ($8,200; -159) vs. Washington Nationals
Highest Projected Total
Houston Astros (+118; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-141; 5.5 runs) 10 runs — I wasn’t big on the total of this game going over last night and at least early on, looked as if I was totally wrong. Despite the Astros scoring six runs in the first two innings, the game still managed to go under 10 runs. Well, in the words of the Bernie Sanders meme “I’m once again asking you to consider the under in this game.”
The Astros remain one of the best teams hitting the over with a 35-23-2 record while the Red Sox are one of the worst at 27-33-1. Nathan Eovaldi ($8,300) is taking the mound for the favored Red Sox and has been on point over his last five starts. Since May 11th against the A’s, Eovaldi has a .283 wOBA, a 2.82 FIP and a 24.6% K%. The Astros are a tough team to strikeout so they make plenty of contact but Eovaldi is inducing a lot of ground balls, currently at 46.2%. I’m not a big fan of Jake Odorizzi ($8,100) and think he’ll have some issues against the Red Sox but I’m not convinced the Astros will make up the difference. Thus, I think this total at 10 runs is currently too high, so I’m siding with the under in this one.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st
Weather Notes
Not as many games as last night but still a number with some rain concerns. Once again, I’ll list them all below with the percentage of rain next to it.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (53%)
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (45%)
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles (54%)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (55%)
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Randy Dobnak, .417, 8.32
Brad Keller, .372, 4.50
Griffin Canning, .358, 5.41
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Anderson, .234, 3.48
Lance Lynn, .240, 3.39
Nathan Eovaldi, .241, 2.00
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .404, 6.41
Griffin Canning, .388, 5.61
Matt Harvey, .381, 3.54
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .212, 2.67
Gerrit Cole, .233, 1.96
Taijuan Walker, .237, 3.02
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, $6,000 — This is not exactly how I thought this day would go. I didn’t wake up this morning and think “ya know, I’m going to write up Austin Gomber as my top option for tonight.” Yet, here we are.
To be fair, I think Gomber is very underpriced and it’s a huge reason why I’m on him. This is someone who has at least 21 DKFP in four of his last five starts. I mean, how on Earth is he still only $6,000? He’s striking out over a batter an inning with a 9.3 K/9 and has an 11.2% swing-and-miss rate. Now he faces a Marlins team who against lefties has a .294 wOBA, a .151 ISO, an 89 wRC+ and a 28% K%. I’m sorry, what am I missing here?
One can say that Gomber has been much worse on the road than at Coors (odd), which is completely true. With that said, this is not a tough matchup on paper and Gomber has a very realistic chance of racking up some strikeouts. I simply cannot pass up someone who could realistically score 3-4x relative to his salary.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Pete Alonso, New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, $5,800 — That great comeback by Matt Harvey ($5,000) is not something we hear about anymore. After a decent month of April, Harvey went on to allow 30 runs (25 earned) through just 23 1/3 innings in the month of May. Now he faces his former team once again, this time in Baltimore. At home against righties, Harvey has a .376 wOBA with a 5.05 FIP and three of the eight home runs he’s allowed. That sounds good for Alonso, who since returning from the injured list is averaging 10.6 DKFP in eight games, which includes three home runs and nine RBI.
Save Big by Drafting
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, $3,200 — Crawford has quietly been posting some really good numbers as of late hitting atop the Mariners lineup. When you’re averaging 14.6 DKFP over the last five games, that’s going to get some attention, especially when you’re so cheap. During that span, Crawford has gone 10-for-23 with five doubles, a home runs and five RBI. He has a tough matchup against Casey Mize ($6,800) but I never shy away from using lefties against him. On the season, Mize has been tagged for a .340 wOBA, a 6.04 FIP and seven of the 10 home runs he’s allowed to southpaws.
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