The Palmetto Championship is a one-time replacement for the RBC Canadian Open, which was canceled this year due to COVID-19 concerns. With a weaker field than usual, there will be a lot of ownership gravitating towards recognizable names, especially the guys who fill out the stat models.
This week’s field consists of golfers from the European Tour, the Korn Ferry Tour and the secondary and tertiary players on the PGA TOUR. Even though there aren’t marquee names on the tee sheet this week other than Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, new venues and weaker fields can be lucrative in both the betting and DFS markets if you can pinpoint some unknown golfers who possess the skills that will translate into success this week. Playing chalk like Tyrrell Hatton or Vincent Whaley won’t hurt you as much as in previous weeks with the size of the field, but it won’t get you a GPP win.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Tyrrell Hatton ($10,200)
I‘m not saying Hatton’s the only option in this range but pivoting up to the three golfers ahead of him doesn’t give you much leverage, especially with all four golfers above $10,000 coming in with question marks on the state of their game or motivation this week. Brooks Koepka ($11,100) feels like the prudent pivot off Hatton, ranking first in SG: Tee-to-Green over the previous 12 rounds, and Dustin Johnson ($11,400) could turn it on at any time in his home state. Both are undoubtedly looking ahead to Torrey Pines next week, and Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,400) is completely lost with his irons, ranking 105th in approach over the last 24 rounds. Hatton is second in SG: Ball-Striking (to Brooks) and third in approach over the previous 24 rounds. Of the top 4 in price, he’s the play despite his chalky projection this week. If you don’t want to chase Hatton, going heavy in the $9,000-range could be a way to build a contrarian lineup with the projected roster percentage being fairly spread out across that range.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Lucas Glover ($8,600)
Pivot: Russell Knox ($8,200)
The “Glove” is projected to be one of the most rostered players this week, being an ambassador at this course and one of the few guys who has experience playing here. Glover is also playing well, ranking second in SG: Total over the last 24 rounds, so it’s understandable why he’s the flavor of the week in the $8,000-range. Russell Knox isn’t going to lead the field in driving distance this week, nor any week for that matter. Still, his ability to play well on long courses, hit the fairway Off-the-Tee at an impressive clip and get it close with his irons should be reason enough to pivot shares to the Scotsman who’s elite with his approach game, especially from 175-plus yards away. A top 20 at the Wells Fargo this season, another long course in South Carolina, should be reason enough why Knox could be a fantastic GPP play who’s projected to be single digits in roster percentage at press time.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Vincent Whaley ($7,700)
Pivot: Byeong Hun An ($7,400)
Another chalk Whaley week on a new course could work well, but you should proceed with caution when he’s projected to be the third-highest rostered player here, according to fantasynational.com. He’s playing well, but this is the range to take some proverbial shots in the dark with players who could find some form this week. An has been bad this year, missing 42% of his cuts since his top 10 at the American Express in January. Still, when the courses are over 7,400 yards, his game becomes stronger, ranking eighth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds in those tournaments. Also, getting Benny on fast, bermuda greens is a huge plus, ranking 58th in putting and first in SG: Tee-to-Green over the same timeframe.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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