It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Under 7.5 (-104)
Editor’s note: Phillies SP Zach Eflin (illness) has been scratched today vs. the Marlins. SP Matt Moore will start in Eflin’s place.
The Marlins and Phillies have had a rough go of it at the plate this season, and nothing has changed over the past two weeks. Philadelphia even went on a miniature hot streak, and still rates as a below-average lineup over the last two weeks with a wRC+ in the bottom 10 of the league. That’s despite the fact that they’re walking at a 10% clip, too.
The matchup with Pablo Lopez, a pitcher who’s been so great at limiting walks, isn’t a good one. Miami’s prospects against Zach Eflin aren’t too great either, considering Eflin has been even better at limiting walks and the Marlins have relied on traffic on the bases for their two big boppers in Jesus Aguilar and Adam Duvall. There shouldn’t be many runners on for either bad offense and with that there shouldn’t be too many runs scored.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Nationals +118
It’s no secret that the Dodgers have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. It’s been constant, and it’s happened against even some of the worst lefties in the league like Marco Gonzales. The Dodgers have acknowledged this, and they’ve worked hard to fix the issue between games.
Still, the issue persists. Los Angeles has posted just a 93 wRC+ against southpaws this season and just recently got shut down by Blake Snell, who is in the midst of a horrific season. Corbin is another lefty who’s had success during his career but has been bad in 2021, but a 3.82 ERA in June is a massive step in the right direction. He looks much more in control out there, and I have the utmost confidence he can get it done against L.A.
That’s all without mentioning the Nationals have scored approximately a million runs over the last two nights and have the hottest hitter in the game in Kyle Schwarber. This is fantastic value.
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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Padres ML (+102)
There’s not a team in baseball that’s hotter than the Padres, who are the proud owners of a 155 wRC+ over the last two weeks. They are winners of 11 games in 12 tries, and have socked right-handed pitching all season long.
Luis Castillo stands on the other end here, and he’s been a very strange pitcher lately. I still am not sold he’s over his issues, yielding 12 hits in the last two starts, and the strikeouts have been the reason most have decided he’s good again. He’s still allowing a boatload of hard contact, and will now face one of the kings of exit velocity in one of the biggest hitter’s parks.
The Padres also have owned a strikeout rate just over 21% during that two-week span, to their credit. That should help them get to Castillo here.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.