The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
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1. Christopher Bell ($11,500) — Kyle Busch isn’t in the No. 54 JGR car this week, but Bell isn’t much of a downgrade. Bell has won everywhere in the Xfinity Series, but he was at his best at short tracks. In his two races at New Hampshire, Bell had the highest driver rating in both races and scored 143 and 82 fantasy points.
2. Justin Allgaier ($11,100) — New Hampshire is a once-a-season track, but last season there wasn’t even one race at New Hampshire. Most of the field will be inexperienced this weekend, and that’s a huge boost to a veteran that doesn’t really need one. Allgaier finished third to Christopher Bell and Cole Custer at New Hampshire in 2019.
3. Austin Cindric ($10,700) — In 14 of the 18 races this season, Cindric has a top five driver rating. On average, he has the second-best driver rating in those races. He’s been fast everywhere, and regardless of his inexperience at New Hampshire, he should be fast on Saturday.
4. Noah Gragson ($9,100) — His season seemed to be over a month ago. Gragson appeared depressed, he disconnected from social media and his average finish was 29th during a four race stretch. Now, over the last five races, his average finish is sixth and he is getting better each week.
5. Harrison Burton ($9,600) — On one hand, Burton has experience at New Hampshire. On the other hand, he wrecked the premier JGR car as a part time driver in that 2019 race on lap 154 of 200. He was a top-5 driver before that wreck, and won at the flat track in Martinsville in 2020.
6. AJ Allmendinger ($9,400) — In the Cup Series, Allmendinger rarely raced great equipment, but he put together some solid finishes at New Hampshire. He earned seven top 20 finishes for RPM and JTG-Daugherty.
7. Brandon Jones ($10,100) — Jones doesn’t have to lead laps or win based on his starting position. He needs to do what he’s done in three of the last four New Hampshire races, which is finish 11th or better.
8. Josh Berry ($10,400) — Dale Jr. can’t quit Josh Berry. Michael Annett is injured, so Josh Berry is going to get another opportunity with JR Motorsports, but in the No. 1 car this time. What better place than New Hampshire? This track is considered to be a bigger version of Martinsville, and Berry put himself on the map by winning at Martinsville earlier this season.
9. Daniel Hemric ($9,800) — It’s just not going to happen for him. Hemric had Atlanta won, but a late race caution forced a series of restarts and eventually Hemric got wrecked. He had Las Vegas won, and he choked on a late race restart. This is a track where Hemric could win, if he wasn’t cursed.
10. Myatt Snider ($8,200) — How many times has Snider earned a top 10 driver rating this season? At best, an RCR car should be a top-10 car every week; at worst, Snider should be a top-10 driver every other week. Snider has not been good this season, so a guess of nine times in 18 races is fair — he’s earned a top 10 driver rating three times this season, and one of those races was a plate race and another was a wreck fest at the Daytona Road Course.
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11. Riley Herbst ($8,000) — How many times has Herbst earned a top 10 driver rating this season? Just like Snider, Herbst has earned a top 10 driver rating a whopping three times, and one of those races was Talladega.
12. Justin Haley ($8,600) — His teammate, Jeb Burton, almost stole a win last week on a late race restart. The Kaulig Racing cars are fast, but not the fastest. Haley is a dependable top-10 driver every week, but he’ll need last race chaos to be a factor in DFS.
13. Jeremy Clements ($6,800) — It’s time to show this small team some love. Well built small teams have good races and have decent seasons, but they do not click off top 15s every week. Small team drivers do not produce every week and small team cars fail, but that has not been the case for Clements. There are two stories in the Xfinity Series this year: The dominance of the No. 54 JGR car and the underdog Clements team producing every week.
14. Brett Moffitt ($7,700) — Last week, Moffit ran the fifth most laps inside the top 10. The Xfinity Series does not race a low horsepower package that evens the playing fields. The have-nots cannot run inside the top 10. It’s possible that Our Motorsports is taking a step up into the top tier.
15. Brandon Brown ($7,500) — He’s starting toward the back and he usually finishes toward the front. Brown has a top 15 driver rating in 11 of the 18 races this season. Driver rating is heavily influenced by a driver’s average running position not their finishing position. Brown has not been flukey, he’s been good.
16. JJ Yeley ($8,400) — The No. 17 Rick Ware car is a top-20 car when Yeley drives. That line gets repeated often, but what are Yeley’s actual numbers in this car? He finished 14th last season at Martinsville, and this season he finished 12th at Homestead, 13th at Phoenix, 24th at Martinsville, 22nd at Darlington, 14th at Dover and 22nd at Nashville. Maybe this isn’t always a top-20 car and we owe the Ware brothers an apology.
17. Jordan Anderson ($7,600) — Officially, he ran 120 laps at Texas, but those laps were after a lengthy visit to the garage to fix a mechanical failure. The car was fast after that, just like it has been when Tyler Reddick and Josh Berry have been behind the wheel. Anderson is due for some good fortune.
18. Sam Mayer ($8,800) — He didn’t wreck the Jr Motorsports No. 8 car last week, so that’s a start. However, he’s still expensive for an inexperienced driver. In his defense, he’s been a top-15 driver in two of his three races this season, and he finished ninth at a challenging track last week.
19. Dexter Bean ($5,400) — The pick is not so much about Bean, as it is a Mario Gosselin car starting 37th and priced at $5,400. Bean isn’t terrible, he averaged a 24th place finish over his first three races this season.
20. Kyle Weatherman ($5,300) — You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. The direction Weatherman blew last week was to the junkyard, and he took a lot of DFS lineups with him. He squandered a possible top 20 finish by staying out during a caution and wrecking on a restart. If Mike Harmon can manage to fix this car, then Weatherman should be low owned by the once bitten, twice shy.
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