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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Bucks vs. Suns Showdown on July 14

Matt LaMarca gives his top lineup advice for Wednesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Bucks and the Suns, which locks at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Wednesday features Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns starting at 9:00 p.m. ET.

This series had the potential to turn into a blowout after the first two contests. The Suns won both of their home games by comfortable margins, giving them a 2-0 series lead heading to Milwaukee. Historically, teams who take a 2-0 lead end up winning a seven-game series approximately 92.6% of the time, so they were clearly in control heading into Game 3.

That said, the Bucks were able to right the ship at home, recording a 120-100 victory. That victory has had a large impact on the lines. The Suns are still listed as -265 to win the series on DraftKings Sportsbook, but the Bucks are listed as five-point favorites in Game 4. If they’re able to secure another victory at home, the series will be tied up at two games apiece heading back to Phoenix. That essentially makes this another must-win game for Milwaukee.

DraftKings is offering up a Showdown slate for this contest, so let’s break down some of the top options to consider for your lineups.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (PHO vs MIL)


Captain’s Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,300 CP) – You could make a case that Antetokounmpo is the only true fantasy stud in this series. He’s the best DFS asset in virtually every series that he plays in, but the gap is particularly wide vs. the Suns. He’s been playing some of his best basketball recently, scoring at least 69.25 DKFP in back-to-back games. When he brings his A-game, no one else in this series can match him. That makes him a must-play, and he should garner heavy consideration for the Captain’s spot. He was the optimal Captain in Game 3, and he was a UTIL in the optimal lineup for Game 1 and Game 2.

Deandre Ayton ($12,600 CP) – Ayton is coming off his worst game of the series in Game 3, which is the case for most of the Suns’ players. That said, there is a lot to like about him in Game 4. For starters, his price has decreased by $800 on DraftKings over the past two games, and his usage rate was way up in Game 3. He finished with a usage rate of 26.3% after posting a mark of 14.4% or less in the first two games. If he can keep that same usage rate and return to his normal workload in Game 4, he has massive upside at his reduced price tag.


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UTIL Plays

Chris Paul ($9,600) – Paul continues to stand out as one of the best bargains in this series. He’s been just as involved as a scorer as Devin Booker ($10,400) — Paul’s usage rate is 27.5% and Booker’s is 28.8% — but Paul is much better in the peripheral categories. He unsurprisingly leads the Suns in assist rate, and he’s scored at least 40.5 DKFP in three of his past four games. Paul has the lowest minute expectation among the studs in this series, but he trails only Giannis in terms of per-minute production.

Pat Connaughton ($4,200) – You’re going to need some values if you’re going to fit Giannis, Ayton and Paul into your lineups. Luckily, there are some strong options to choose from. Connaught stands out as one of my favorites. He’s seen a nice spike in playing time recently, logging at least 30 minutes in three of his past four games, and Connaughton has responded with at least 18.75 DKFP in all three contests. His price has barely budged, so he’s a nice source of value once again on Wednesday.

Cameron Johnson ($3,800) – Johnson stands out as another excellent value. His playing time has been trending upwards, yet his salary has actually decreased. He should see somewhere between 25 and 30 minutes on tonight’s slate, and he can easily pay off this price tag with that much playing time.


Fades

Mikal Bridges ($7,600) – Bridges is a fine player, he’s just too expensive at the moment. He’s been hit-or-miss in this series, which is not all that surprising. His fantasy production comes from his ability to make three-pointers, which makes him a volatile player. When he’s making his jumper — like he did in Game 2 — he has the potential to go off for 40-plus DKFP. When he’s missing them, he’s going to bust. I don’t think he has enough upside to justify such an expensive salary in Game 4.


The Outcome

I’ve been backing the Bucks all postseason, and I’m not going to stop now. Giannis continues to put up massive numbers on a nightly basis, so if his teammates can make some shots, they should be able to win.

I’m putting Giannis in the Captain’s spot again in Game 4, which means we’re going to have to roster some values to make things work. Connaughton and Johnson are excellent options, and Torrey Craig ($1,800) makes sense if you’re looking for a pure punt play. Ayton also seems underpriced, so he’s someone I’d like to pair with Giannis, as well.

Final Score: Bucks 114, Suns 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (PHO vs MIL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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