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Finally, baseball is back from the break. So many options to choose from on DraftKings Sportsbook, but there are four MLB bets for Friday’s slate of games that stand out above the rest.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Royals over 4.5 runs -145
Keegan Akin over 5.5 hits allowed +110
The Royals had limited exposure to left-handed pitching between the start of July and the All-Star break. But they still took advantage of the lefties they saw during that span, ranking among the top five in both OPS and ISO against lefties.
On Friday, Kansas City squares off against a left-hander who hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning since June 16 vs. Cleveland (5 2/3 innings). But in each of his last five starts, including the outing vs. Cleveland, Akin has given up six-plus hits. Furthermore, Akin has given up four-plus runs in each of those outings — five plus in three of those five.
If the Royals can’t reach the five-run mark against Akin, Baltimore’s bullpen will make sure they do so. Orioles relievers have been brutal all season but especially in July, during which they have a 6.75 ERA, 5.99 FIP and a 2.03 HR/9.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Swing for the Fences [$100K to 1st]
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts -105
The first-time MLB All-Star is facing the same lineup he punched out eight times in his second-to-last outing before the break. Gausman followed that up by striking out nine vs. the Nationals, a team that doesn’t strike out much against right-handed pitching — which has also been the case with the Cardinals this month.
The San Francisco righty has gotten hitters to go after pitches out of the zone frequently this season, and they’re missing those pitches often — especially his splitter. After all these years, Gausman’s numbers finally match his stuff, so there’s no reason to expect him to slow down after the break.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Giants SP Kevin Gausman (personal) has been scratched from his start tonight vs. the Cardinals.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Antonio Senzatela over 6.5 hits allowed +105
Seven hits off of one pitcher may seem like a lot to ask of the Dodgers, but it would honestly be more surprising if they didn’t register at least that much on Friday. The last time Senzatela didn’t give up seven-plus hits in a start was on May 28 — an outing where he only went four innings. We can extend this trend even further, going all the way back into April. Senzatela has given up seven or more hits in 10 of his last 12 starts, including his 4 2/3-inning start on April 29.
As for the Dodgers’ role in this: they were middle of the pack against right-handed pitching before the break. But that should play well for this bet — the Dodgers are less likely to end his night early. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks had a much lower OPS against righties than Los Angeles between the start of July and the MLB All-Star break, yet they got to Senzatela for seven hits over six innings in his last outing.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela (health protocols) has been scratched from tonight’s start vs. the Dodgers, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
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